Predicted Edge

Petro de Luanda v Scotland Mabvuku

Petro de Luanda won 2 of the last 43–0Scotland Mabvuku won 2 of the last 4

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Petro de Luanda Scotland Mabvuku
14Shots5
4Shots on target0
7Corners3
—Fouls—
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
63%Possession %37%
—xG—
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
16%
Both score
41%
Model pick
Petro de Luanda 45%
Likely score
1-0 15%
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.83

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPetro de Luanda45.4%2.20———
Match resultDraw30.5%3.27———
Match resultScotland Mabvuku24.1%4.15———
Total goalsOver 1.562.2%1.61———
Total goalsUnder 1.537.8%2.65———
Total goalsOver 2.534.5%2.90———
Total goalsUnder 2.565.5%1.53———
Total goalsOver 3.515.8%6.34———
Total goalsUnder 3.584.2%1.19———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes40.9%2.44———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No59.1%1.69———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Petro de Luanda favoured against Scotland Mabvuku

Our model makes Petro de Luanda 45% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 31% and Scotland Mabvuku at 24%. The goal projection is 1.25 for Petro de Luanda against 0.83 for Scotland Mabvuku — a clear edge to Petro de Luanda on expected output. A combined 2.08 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-0 15%
1-1 14%
0-0 13%
0-1 10%
2-0 10%

This season

Season records for Petro de Luanda and Scotland Mabvuku
Petro de Luanda Scotland Mabvuku
4Played4
2-1-1W-D-L2-1-1
1.75Pts / game1.75
1.50Goals for / game0.75
1.00Goals against / game0.75
50%Over 2.525%
25%BTTS0%
50%Clean sheets75%
25%Failed to score50%
1-1-0Home record2-0-0
1-0-1Away record0-1-1
W1StreakL1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Petro de Luanda · Scotland Mabvuku

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
7.5Shots11.0
2.0Shots on target6.0
4.0Corners4.5
1.00Cards2.00
—Fouls—
53Possession %47
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0Shots7.5
6.0Shots on target2.0
4.5Corners4.0
2.00Cards1.00
—Fouls—
47Possession %53
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Petro de LuandaMetricScotland Mabvuku
1.00 (better)Goals scored0.80
0.40Goals conceded0.20 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Petro de Luanda wins
1
Draws
0
Scotland Mabvuku wins
1
Goals / game
2.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
0%