SC Paderborn 07 v 
VfB Stuttgart
Match statistics
| SC Paderborn 07 | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 344 | Passes | 578 |
| 36% | Possession % | 64% |
| 0.92 | xG | 3.22 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 62%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- VfB Stuttgart 62%
- Likely score
- 1-2 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.05 – 2.14
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5VfB Stuttgart +0.25
Why this price?
Back VfB Stuttgart +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.35 with Bet365 — VfB Stuttgart starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 81% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 78%; we judge it at 79%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.26. The offered 1.35 implies only 74%, so the price is 6.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: SC Paderborn 07 1.05, VfB Stuttgart 2.14.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SC Paderborn 07 | 17.3% | 5.79 | 5.75 Bet365 | 17.4% | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.0% | 4.75 | 4.65 Betano | 21.5% | -0.5 |
| Match result | VfB Stuttgart | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | -0.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.17 Bet365 | 85.5% | -2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.8% | 5.94 | 6.00 Bet365 | 16.7% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -3.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.75 BetVictor | 36.4% | +1.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 39.5% | 2.54 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | +2.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -7.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | +2.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
VfB Stuttgart favoured against SC Paderborn 07
Our model makes SC Paderborn 07 17% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 21% and VfB Stuttgart at 62%. The goal projection is 1.05 for SC Paderborn 07 against 2.14 for VfB Stuttgart — a commanding edge to VfB Stuttgart on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. VfB Stuttgart is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 10%
- 1-1 10%
- 0-2 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 1-3 7%
This season
| SC Paderborn 07 | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 2-4-3 | W-D-L | 4-0-5 |
| 1.11 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 0.89 | Goals for / game | 1.67 |
| 1.22 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 44% | Over 2.5 | 56% |
| 33% | BTTS | 56% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 56% | Failed to score | 22% |
| 2-1-2 | Home record | 2-0-2 |
| 0-3-1 | Away record | 2-0-3 |
| D2 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. SC Paderborn 07 · VfB Stuttgart
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.0 | Shots | 16.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.31 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 47 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.43 | xG | 2.20 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 16.3 | Shots | 18.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.45 | Cards | 3.17 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 10.9 |
| 53 | Possession % | 45 |
| 2.04 | xG | 1.75 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| SC Paderborn 07 | Metric | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.12 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.75 | Shots on target | 6.50 (better) |
| 14.50 | Total shots | 19.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.75 | Corners | 7.75 (better) |
| 42.5 | Possession % | 58.0 (better) |
| 418 | Passes | 556 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.25 (better) | Fouls | 12.50 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 1.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.00 |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- SC Paderborn 07 wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- VfB Stuttgart wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart0–12026-10-28
- SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart0–22026-10-10