San-Pédro v Nouadhibou

2–1

16:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: San-Pédro 42%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.02

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	San-Pédro	42.1%	2.38	—	—	—
Match result	Draw	29.3%	3.42	—	—	—
Match result	Nouadhibou	28.6%	3.49	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.7%	1.48	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.3%	3.10	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.6%	2.46	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.4%	1.68	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.2%	4.95	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.8%	1.25	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.9%	2.13	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.1%	1.88	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

San-Pédro favoured against Nouadhibou

Our model makes San-Pédro 42% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Nouadhibou at 29%. The goal projection is 1.29 for San-Pédro against 1.02 for Nouadhibou — a clear edge to San-Pédro on expected output. A combined 2.31 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for San-Pédro and Nouadhibou
San-Pédro		Nouadhibou
4	Played	4
1-2-1	W-D-L	1-2-1
1.25	Pts / game	1.25
1.25	Goals for / game	1.00
1.50	Goals against / game	0.75
50%	Over 2.5	25%
75%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	25%
1-1-0	Home record	1-1-0
0-1-1	Away record	0-1-1
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. San-Pédro · Nouadhibou

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
21.0	Shots	13.0
10.0	Shots on target	7.0
4.0	Corners	2.0
1.00	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	—
56	Possession %	44
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	21.0
7.0	Shots on target	10.0
2.0	Corners	4.0
2.00	Cards	1.00
—	Fouls	—
44	Possession %	56
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
San-Pédro	Metric	Nouadhibou
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

San-Pédro wins: 1
Draws: 0
Nouadhibou wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Nouadhibou v San-Pédro2–02026-10-25
San-Pédro v Nouadhibou2–12026-10-17