Nouadhibou v San-Pédro

2–0

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nouadhibou		San-Pédro
13	Shots	21
7	Shots on target	10
2	Corners	4
—	Fouls	—
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
44%	Possession %	56%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Nouadhibou 41%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.10

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Nouadhibou	40.7%	2.46	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+0.7
Match result	Draw	28.7%	3.48	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-3.5
Match result	San-Pédro	30.6%	3.27	3.05 Betano	32.8%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.0%	1.43	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.0%	3.33	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.2%	2.31	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	-0.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.8%	1.76	1.60 Bet365	62.5%	-5.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.3%	4.49	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.7%	1.29	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.3%	2.03	1.91 William Hill	52.4%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.7%	1.97	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-4.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Nouadhibou favoured against San-Pédro

Our model makes Nouadhibou 41% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 29% and San-Pédro at 31%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Nouadhibou against 1.10 for San-Pédro — a slight edge to Nouadhibou on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Nouadhibou and San-Pédro
Nouadhibou		San-Pédro
4	Played	4
1-2-1	W-D-L	1-2-1
1.25	Pts / game	1.25
1.00	Goals for / game	1.25
0.75	Goals against / game	1.50
25%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	75%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
25%	Failed to score	25%
1-1-0	Home record	1-1-0
0-1-1	Away record	0-1-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nouadhibou · San-Pédro

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	21.0
7.0	Shots on target	10.0
2.0	Corners	4.0
2.00	Cards	1.00
—	Fouls	—
44	Possession %	56
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
21.0	Shots	13.0
10.0	Shots on target	7.0
4.0	Corners	2.0
1.00	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	—
56	Possession %	44
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nouadhibou	Metric	San-Pédro
0.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nouadhibou wins: 1
Draws: 0
San-Pédro wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Nouadhibou v San-Pédro2–02026-10-25
San-Pédro v Nouadhibou2–12026-10-17