Reading v 
Leyton Orient
Match statistics
| Reading | Leyton Orient | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 323 | Passes | 491 |
| 40% | Possession % | 60% |
| 1.49 | xG | 2.85 |
- Over 1.5
- 80%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- Reading 55%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.87 – 1.10
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Reading -0.5
Why this price?
Back Reading -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.55 with Bet365 — Reading must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 77%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.47. The offered 1.55 implies only 65%, so the price is 5.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Reading 1.87, Leyton Orient 1.10.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Reading | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -10.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.6% | 4.24 | 4.80 Dafabet | 20.8% | +2.7 |
| Match result | Leyton Orient | 21.6% | 4.63 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | +7.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.21 BetVictor | 82.6% | -2.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.8% | 5.04 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.65 Betfair | 60.6% | -3.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +1.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | -5.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | +0.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | +3.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2.10 William Hill | 47.6% | -4.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Reading favoured against Leyton Orient
Our model makes Reading 55% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 24% and Leyton Orient at 22%. The goal projection is 1.87 for Reading against 1.10 for Leyton Orient — a substantial edge to Reading on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 9%
- 3-1 6%
This season
| Reading | Leyton Orient | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 13 |
| 6-4-4 | W-D-L | 5-2-6 |
| 1.57 | Pts / game | 1.31 |
| 1.79 | Goals for / game | 1.46 |
| 1.07 | Goals against / game | 1.08 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 46% |
| 50% | BTTS | 38% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 46% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 5-1-1 | Home record | 3-0-4 |
| 1-3-3 | Away record | 2-2-2 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Reading · Leyton Orient
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.8 | Shots | 13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 6.3 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.25 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 46 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.84 | xG | 1.67 |
| 8 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.1 | Shots | 14.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 54 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.22 | xG | 1.36 |
| 8 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Reading | Metric | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.50 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.58 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.59 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 14.40 (better) | Total shots | 13.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Corners | 4.50 |
| 48.8 (better) | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 369 | Passes | 390 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 | Fouls | 11.25 (better) |
| 3.80 | Offsides | 2.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.75 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Reading wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Leyton Orient wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Reading v Leyton Orient1–02026-10-21
- Leyton Orient v Reading3–12026-01-17
- Reading v Leyton Orient2–12025-09-20
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +16 | 29 | Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 | Stockport County won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +11 | 26 | Oxford United won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 | Luton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Plymouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Reading | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +10 | 22 | Reading won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 22 | Bradford won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 20 | Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 | Leicester won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 | Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 | Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 | Wycombe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 | Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 | Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 | Stevenage won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | Notts County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 | AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | Blackpool won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 | Doncaster won 1 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 | Wigan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 | Peterborough won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 | Barnsley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 | Bromley won 0 of the last 5 |