Peterborough v Luton

22nd0–24th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Peterborough		Luton
17	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	6
8	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
460	Passes	347
57%	Possession %	43%
1.02	xG	1.44

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Luton 47%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.96

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Luton +0.25

1.70Bet365 · fair 1.54 · qualifies at 1.59+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Luton +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with Bet365 — Luton starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 65% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.54. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Peterborough 1.58, Luton 1.96.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Peterborough	30.8%	3.25	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	+2.6
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.42	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-3.0
Match result	Luton	46.6%	2.15	2.02 Dafabet	49.5%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.3%	1.15	1.15 Betano	87.0%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.7%	7.86	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.6%	1.46	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+2.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.4%	3.19	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	-5.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.2%	2.12	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.8%	1.89	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.6%	1.46	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.4%	3.19	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-3.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Luton favoured against Peterborough

Our model makes Peterborough 31% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 23% and Luton at 47%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Peterborough against 1.96 for Luton — a clear edge to Luton on expected output. A combined 3.54 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Peterborough and Luton
Peterborough		Luton
13	Played	14
2-4-7	W-D-L	7-3-4
0.77	Pts / game	1.71
0.85	Goals for / game	1.93
1.77	Goals against / game	1.50
46%	Over 2.5	64%
54%	BTTS	79%
8%	Clean sheets	14%
46%	Failed to score	7%
1-2-3	Home record	4-2-1
1-2-4	Away record	3-1-3
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Peterborough · Luton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	15.9
4.3	Shots on target	5.9
6.7	Corners	5.7
1.50	Cards	1.14
10.2	Fouls	12.6
52	Possession %	49
1.52	xG	1.84
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	13.7
5.0	Shots on target	4.7
4.5	Corners	5.6
1.17	Cards	1.29
12.3	Fouls	12.0
48	Possession %	51
1.63	xG	1.29
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Peterborough	Metric	Luton
2.50 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
2.00	Goals conceded	1.25 (better)
1.82	Expected goals (xG)	2.26 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
18.25 (better)	Total shots	17.75
	Touches in opp. box
7.25 (better)	Corners	6.25
52.0 (better)	Possession %	51.3
430 (better)	Passes	387
	Tackles
11.75 (better)	Fouls	13.50
3.50	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Peterborough wins: 0
Draws: 0
Luton wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Peterborough v Luton0–22026-10-31
Luton v Peterborough2–12026-04-03
Peterborough v Luton0–22025-08-09

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5