Peterborough v Burton Albion

22nd2–215th

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Peterborough		Burton Albion
20	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	6
8	Corners	4
11	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	3
471	Passes	389
55%	Possession %	45%
2.58	xG	0.91

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Burton Albion 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.56

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Peterborough	34.9%	2.86	1.95 BetVictor	51.3%	-16.4
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.94	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+0.4
Match result	Burton Albion	39.7%	2.52	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	+14.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.7%	1.24	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.3%	5.18	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-0.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.7%	1.73	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.3%	2.37	2.40 Bet365	41.7%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.3%	2.83	2.45 Betano	40.8%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.7%	1.55	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.9%	1.64	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.1%	2.56	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-0.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Peterborough v Burton Albion: too close to call

Our model makes Peterborough 35% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 25% and Burton Albion at 40%. The goal projection is 1.45 for Peterborough against 1.56 for Burton Albion — a slight edge to Burton Albion on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Peterborough and Burton Albion
Peterborough		Burton Albion
13	Played	14
2-4-7	W-D-L	4-5-5
0.77	Pts / game	1.21
0.85	Goals for / game	1.29
1.77	Goals against / game	1.50
46%	Over 2.5	64%
54%	BTTS	64%
8%	Clean sheets	14%
46%	Failed to score	29%
1-2-3	Home record	2-4-1
1-2-4	Away record	2-1-4
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Peterborough · Burton Albion

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	12.7
4.3	Shots on target	4.1
6.7	Corners	5.6
1.50	Cards	1.86
10.2	Fouls	11.3
52	Possession %	50
1.52	xG	1.05
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	15.3
5.0	Shots on target	4.0
4.5	Corners	7.1
1.17	Cards	1.86
12.3	Fouls	11.6
48	Possession %	50
1.63	xG	1.35
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Peterborough	Metric	Burton Albion
1.75 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.25	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.35	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.25 (better)	Shots on target	2.40
17.50 (better)	Total shots	9.60
	Touches in opp. box
6.50 (better)	Corners	3.00
59.8 (better)	Possession %	53.0
535 (better)	Passes	421
	Tackles
11.00	Fouls	8.80 (better)
2.50	Offsides	0.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.20

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Peterborough wins: 1
Draws: 2
Burton Albion wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Peterborough v Burton Albion2–22026-10-17
Peterborough v Burton Albion1–12026-04-19
Burton Albion v Peterborough0–12025-10-18

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5