Palmeiras v 
Fluminense
Match statistics
| Palmeiras | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 549 | Passes | 523 |
| 54% | Possession % | 46% |
| 0.67 | xG | 0.32 |
- Over 1.5
- 65%
- Over 2.5
- 38%
- Over 3.5
- 18%
- Both score
- 42%
- Model pick
- Palmeiras 51%
- Likely score
- 1-0 15%
- Expected goals
- 1.41 – 0.79
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Palmeiras 0
Why this price?
Back Palmeiras 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.58 with Bet365 — Palmeiras to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 71% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 69%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.46. The offered 1.58 implies only 63%, so the price is 8.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Palmeiras 1.41, Fluminense 0.79.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Palmeiras | 50.9% | 1.97 | 2.15 Bet365 | 46.5% | +4.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.6% | 3.50 | 3.60 Bet365 | 27.8% | +0.8 |
| Match result | Fluminense | 20.5% | 4.88 | 5.75 Bet365 | 17.4% | +3.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 34.9% | 2.86 | 3.10 Betano | 32.3% | +2.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.40 Bet365 | 41.7% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | +3.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 18.0% | 5.56 | 4.60 BetVictor | 21.7% | -3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.25 Betano | 80.0% | +2.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.25 BetVictor | 44.4% | -2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.90 Betfair | 52.6% | +5.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Palmeiras favoured against Fluminense
Our model makes Palmeiras 51% to win this CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture, with the draw at 29% and Fluminense at 20%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Palmeiras against 0.79 for Fluminense — a substantial edge to Palmeiras on expected output. A combined 2.20 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 15%
- 1-1 13%
- 0-0 12%
- 2-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| Palmeiras | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 21-10-3 | W-D-L | 16-9-9 |
| 2.15 | Pts / game | 1.68 |
| 1.82 | Goals for / game | 1.62 |
| 0.68 | Goals against / game | 1.24 |
| 47% | Over 2.5 | 59% |
| 53% | BTTS | 71% |
| 47% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 12% |
| 13-3-1 | Home record | 12-3-2 |
| 8-7-2 | Away record | 4-6-7 |
| W1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Palmeiras · Fluminense
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.8 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.46 | Cards | 1.89 |
| 12.1 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 60 |
| 2.20 | xG | 1.29 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 11.8 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.89 | Cards | 2.11 |
| 12.1 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 50 | Possession % | 40 |
| 0.76 | xG | 1.34 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Palmeiras | Metric | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 2.33 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| Big chances | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.80 |
| 21.60 (better) | Total shots | 11.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Corners | 1.60 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 52.8 (better) |
| 442 | Passes | 548 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.80 (better) | Fouls | 14.00 |
| 1.60 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.80 | Yellow cards | 2.60 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Palmeiras wins
- 3
- Draws
- 1
- Fluminense wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
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