Oxford United v 
Wigan
Match statistics
| Oxford United | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 536 | Passes | 333 |
| 62% | Possession % | 38% |
| 1.99 | xG | 0.54 |
- Over 1.5
- 74%
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Over 3.5
- 27%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Oxford United 50%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.60 – 1.02
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Oxford United -0.25
Why this price?
Back Oxford United -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.68 with Bet365 — Oxford United must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 66%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.59. The offered 1.68 implies only 60%, so the price is 5.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Oxford United 1.60, Wigan 1.02.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Oxford United | 50.2% | 1.99 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.2% | 3.81 | 3.70 Betfair | 27.0% | -0.8 |
| Match result | Wigan | 23.6% | 4.25 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | -1.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -0.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 26.7% | 3.75 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | -4.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.37 BetVictor | 73.0% | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | -5.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.5% | 2.06 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +2.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Oxford United favoured against Wigan
Our model makes Oxford United 50% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 26% and Wigan at 24%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Oxford United against 1.02 for Wigan — a substantial edge to Oxford United on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Oxford United | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 14 |
| 7-5-1 | W-D-L | 3-2-9 |
| 2.00 | Pts / game | 0.79 |
| 1.69 | Goals for / game | 0.79 |
| 0.85 | Goals against / game | 1.57 |
| 54% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 62% | BTTS | 36% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 57% |
| 4-3-0 | Home record | 3-1-3 |
| 3-2-1 | Away record | 0-1-6 |
| W1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Oxford United · Wigan
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.7 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 6.3 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.86 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 54 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.63 | xG | 1.09 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 14.1 | Shots | 15.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 6.3 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 3.14 | Cards | 3.14 |
| 15.6 | Fouls | 15.1 |
| 46 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.63 | xG | 2.17 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Oxford United | Metric | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 0.75 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.45 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.70 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 2.75 |
| 13.20 (better) | Total shots | 11.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 5.25 (better) |
| 52.8 (better) | Possession % | 52.3 |
| 456 | Passes | 460 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.60 | Fouls | 11.50 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.75 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Oxford United wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Wigan wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Oxford United v Wigan2–12026-10-20
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +16 | 29 | Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 26 | Stockport County won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +11 | 26 | Oxford United won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Luton | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 24 | Luton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Plymouth | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Plymouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Reading | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +10 | 22 | Reading won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 22 | Bradford won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 20 | Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 | Leicester won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 | Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 18 | Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 18 | Wycombe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | +5 | 17 | Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 | Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 16 | Stevenage won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | Notts County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 | AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | Blackpool won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 | Doncaster won 1 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 | Wigan won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 | Peterborough won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 | Barnsley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 | Bromley won 0 of the last 5 |