Orlando Pirates won 3 of the last 4WWWD4–0African Stars won 1 of the last 4LLWL
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Orlando Pirates
African Stars
6
Shots
0
2
Shots on target
0
4
Corners
1
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
61%
Possession %
39%
—
xG
—
55%
25%
20%
1 · Orlando PiratesXAfrican Stars · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Orlando Pirates 55%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.94
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Orlando Pirates
55.0%
1.82
1.24 Dafabet
80.6%
-25.6
Match result
Draw
25.0%
4.01
6.60 Dafabet
15.2%
+9.8
Match result
African Stars
20.0%
5.00
21.00 William Hill
4.8%
+15.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.9%
1.33
1.25 BetVictor
80.0%
-5.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.1%
3.99
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-1.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.6%
1.98
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+26.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.4%
2.03
1.57 Betfair
63.7%
-14.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.6%
2.02
1.85 Bet365
54.1%
-4.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.4%
1.99
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.7%
3.61
3.25 BetVictor
30.8%
-3.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.3%
1.38
1.36 Betfair
73.5%
-1.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Orlando Pirates favoured against African Stars
Our model makes Orlando Pirates 55% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 25% and African Stars at 20%. The goal projection is 1.72 for Orlando Pirates against 0.94 for African Stars — a substantial edge to Orlando Pirates on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-0 11%
2-0 10%
2-1 10%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Orlando Pirates and African Stars
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Orlando Pirates
Metric
African Stars
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
1.49
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
7.00
Shots on target
—
14.33
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.67
Corners
—
59.0
Possession %
—
525
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
11.00
Fouls
—
2.67
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Orlando Pirates v 
African Stars