African Stars v 
Orlando Pirates
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Over 3.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Orlando Pirates 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.26 – 1.29
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | African Stars | 35.4% | 2.82 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | +20.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.0% | 3.57 | 3.90 Betfair | 25.6% | +2.3 |
| Match result | Orlando Pirates | 36.6% | 2.73 | 1.57 William Hill | 63.7% | -27.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.36 Betfair | 73.5% | -0.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.25 Bet365 | 44.4% | +2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.67 Betfair | 59.9% | -6.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.2% | 3.96 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.5% | 1.91 | 2.25 William Hill | 44.4% | +8.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.22 Betfair | 82.0% | -7.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.62 Betfair | 61.7% | -14.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
African Stars v Orlando Pirates: too close to call
Our model makes African Stars 35% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Orlando Pirates at 37%. The goal projection is 1.26 for African Stars against 1.29 for Orlando Pirates — almost nothing to Orlando Pirates on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 0-0 8%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| African Stars | Orlando Pirates | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 1-0-3 | W-D-L | 3-1-0 |
| 0.75 | Pts / game | 2.50 |
| 0.75 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 0.25 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 25% | BTTS | 25% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 75% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 1-0-1 | Home record | 2-0-0 |
| 0-0-2 | Away record | 1-1-0 |
| L2 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. African Stars · Orlando Pirates
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 0.0 | Shots | 6.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 1.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 39 | Possession % | 61 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 6.0 | Shots | 0.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 0.0 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 1.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| African Stars | Metric | Orlando Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 0.20 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 | |
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | 6.33 | |
| Total shots | 13.67 | |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | 7.00 | |
| Possession % | 58.0 | |
| Passes | 490 | |
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | 10.33 | |
| Offsides | 3.00 | |
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | 1.50 | |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- African Stars wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Orlando Pirates wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 0%
- Orlando Pirates v African Stars4–02026-10-23
- African Stars v Orlando Pirates0–12026-10-17