Notts County v Stockport County

17th1–12nd

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Notts County		Stockport County
7	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	8
16	Fouls	6
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
239	Passes	699
26%	Possession %	74%
0.38	xG	2.56

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Stockport County 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.54

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Notts County +0.25

2.85Bet365 · fair 2.56 · qualifies at 2.63+ · 1.56u

Why this price?

Back Notts County +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.85 with Bet365 — Notts County starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.55. The offered 2.85 implies only 35%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.56 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Notts County 1.39, Stockport County 1.54.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Notts County	33.9%	2.95	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+16.5
Match result	Draw	25.7%	3.89	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	+1.3
Match result	Stockport County	40.4%	2.47	1.62 Betfair	61.7%	-21.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.7%	1.25	1.26 BetVictor	79.4%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.3%	4.92	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.2%	1.78	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.8%	2.28	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-5.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.8%	2.96	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.2%	1.51	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-5.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.6%	1.68	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+7.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.4%	2.48	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-8.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Notts County v Stockport County: too close to call

Our model makes Notts County 34% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 26% and Stockport County at 40%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Notts County against 1.54 for Stockport County — a slight edge to Stockport County on expected output. A combined 2.94 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Notts County and Stockport County
Notts County		Stockport County
12	Played	14
3-5-4	W-D-L	8-2-4
1.17	Pts / game	1.86
1.08	Goals for / game	1.86
1.17	Goals against / game	1.00
25%	Over 2.5	50%
58%	BTTS	50%
17%	Clean sheets	36%
25%	Failed to score	21%
2-2-2	Home record	5-0-2
1-3-2	Away record	3-2-2
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Notts County · Stockport County

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	17.6
3.2	Shots on target	4.6
4.0	Corners	7.9
3.40	Cards	1.29
16.8	Fouls	8.0
42	Possession %	66
1.01	xG	2.47
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	9.1
3.4	Shots on target	4.0
6.0	Corners	3.9
2.00	Cards	2.14
12.6	Fouls	9.9
58	Possession %	34
1.41	xG	0.91
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Notts County	Metric	Stockport County
2.67 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.33	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.56	Expected goals (xG)	1.93 (better)
	Big chances
6.33 (better)	Shots on target	4.40
16.00 (better)	Total shots	15.80
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	7.40 (better)
55.3	Possession %	57.4 (better)
525	Passes	545 (better)
	Tackles
16.33	Fouls	7.20 (better)
3.00	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Notts County wins: 0
Draws: 1
Stockport County wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Notts County v Stockport County1–12026-10-24

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5