Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday

17th2–09th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Notts County		Sheffield Wednesday
19	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	0
4	Corners	0
21	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	1
397	Passes	372
52%	Possession %	48%
2.41	xG	0.30

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Notts County 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.02

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Notts County

2.70Dafabet · fair 2.42 · qualifies at 2.49+ · 1.70u

Why this price?

Back Notts County to win at 2.70 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 35%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.42. The offered 2.70 implies only 37%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.70 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Notts County 1.61, Sheffield Wednesday 1.02.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Notts County	50.3%	1.99	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	+24.7
Match result	Draw	26.1%	3.83	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-1.7
Match result	Sheffield Wednesday	23.6%	4.24	2.20 BetVictor	45.5%	-21.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.4%	1.34	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.6%	3.91	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.9%	2.05	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.1%	1.96	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.0%	3.70	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.0%	1.37	1.37 BetVictor	73.0%	-0.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.8%	1.93	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.2%	2.07	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	+3.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Notts County favoured against Sheffield Wednesday

Our model makes Notts County 50% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 26% and Sheffield Wednesday at 24%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Notts County against 1.02 for Sheffield Wednesday — a substantial edge to Notts County on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County		Sheffield Wednesday
12	Played	13
3-5-4	W-D-L	5-5-3
1.17	Pts / game	1.54
1.08	Goals for / game	1.69
1.17	Goals against / game	1.08
25%	Over 2.5	46%
58%	BTTS	54%
17%	Clean sheets	23%
25%	Failed to score	38%
2-2-2	Home record	2-4-1
1-3-2	Away record	3-1-2
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Notts County · Sheffield Wednesday

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	15.8
3.2	Shots on target	5.7
4.0	Corners	5.2
3.40	Cards	2.50
16.8	Fouls	10.5
42	Possession %	59
1.01	xG	1.41
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	15.2
3.4	Shots on target	4.7
6.0	Corners	7.0
2.00	Cards	1.67
12.6	Fouls	13.0
58	Possession %	41
1.41	xG	1.49
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Notts County	Metric	Sheffield Wednesday
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.67	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.56	Expected goals (xG)	1.20 (better)
	Big chances
3.67	Shots on target	4.40 (better)
11.33 (better)	Total shots	10.80
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	5.00 (better)
54.0	Possession %	54.6 (better)
478	Passes	530 (better)
	Tackles
15.67	Fouls	10.80 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.33	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Notts County wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sheffield Wednesday wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday2–02026-10-20

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5