Nagoya Grampus v 
Cerezo Osaka
Match statistics
| Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 598 | Passes | 425 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 1.09 | xG | 0.68 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- Cerezo Osaka 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.37 – 1.42
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Nagoya Grampus -0.5
Why this price?
Back Nagoya Grampus -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.36 with BetVictor — Nagoya Grampus must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.20. The offered 2.36 implies only 42%, so the price is 7.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.30 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.37, Cerezo Osaka 1.42.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nagoya Grampus | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.45 William Hill | 40.8% | -5.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.5% | 3.77 | 3.70 Betfair | 27.0% | -0.5 |
| Match result | Cerezo Osaka | 38.0% | 2.63 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | +5.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -7.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -7.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.47 Betano | 68.0% | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -6.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.8% | 2.33 | 2.40 Betfair | 41.7% | +1.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka: too close to call
Our model makes Nagoya Grampus 36% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Cerezo Osaka at 38%. The goal projection is 1.37 for Nagoya Grampus against 1.42 for Cerezo Osaka — almost nothing to Cerezo Osaka on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 8%
- 1-0 8%
This season
| Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 4-2-8 | W-D-L | 4-5-5 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.21 |
| 1.07 | Goals for / game | 1.14 |
| 1.64 | Goals against / game | 1.79 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 64% | BTTS | 57% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 2-2-3 | Home record | 3-3-1 |
| 2-0-5 | Away record | 1-2-4 |
| L2 | Streak | W1 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nagoya Grampus · Cerezo Osaka
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.0 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 1.17 | Cards | 3.50 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 53 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.37 | xG | 1.10 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 11.7 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.83 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 48 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.11 | xG | 1.40 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Nagoya Grampus | Metric | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.46 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.50 | Shots on target | 3.67 (better) |
| 13.25 (better) | Total shots | 12.33 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 4.33 |
| 60.0 (better) | Possession % | 52.7 |
| 545 (better) | Passes | 444 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.75 | Fouls | 8.33 (better) |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 1.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.67 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Nagoya Grampus wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Cerezo Osaka wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka1–12026-10-21
- Cerezo Osaka v Nagoya Grampus6–12026-05-17
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka3–02026-04-04
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +22 | 30 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +20 | 29 | Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 27 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 22 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 17 | Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 | JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |