Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5WWWLW12th2–1Luton won 4 of the last 5DWWWW4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Milton Keynes Dons
Luton
11
Shots
25
3
Shots on target
5
5
Corners
6
11
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
0
260
Passes
447
38%
Possession %
62%
1.45
xG
1.54
43%
24%
33%
1 · Milton Keynes DonsXLuton · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Milton Keynes Dons 43%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.49
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Milton Keynes Dons
42.9%
2.33
3.70 BetVictor
27.0%
+15.9
Match result
Draw
24.2%
4.13
3.90 Betfair
25.6%
-1.4
Match result
Luton
32.9%
3.04
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-10.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.7%
1.20
1.23 Betano
81.3%
+2.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.3%
6.13
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
-5.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.5%
1.60
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+2.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
37.5%
2.66
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-7.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
40.2%
2.49
2.65 Betano
37.7%
+2.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
59.8%
1.67
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.3%
1.56
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+2.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.7%
2.80
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-6.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Milton Keynes Dons favoured against Luton
Our model makes Milton Keynes Dons 43% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 24% and Luton at 33%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Milton Keynes Dons against 1.49 for Luton — a slight edge to Milton Keynes Dons on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Milton Keynes Dons
Metric
Luton
3.67 (better)
Goals scored
2.00
0.67 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
1.02 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.83
—
Big chances *
—
8.33 (better)
Shots on target
5.00
21.33 (better)
Total shots
13.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.00
Corners
8.00
57.0
Possession %
61.0 (better)
448
Passes
528 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.33
Fouls
10.00 (better)
2.00
Offsides
1.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.33
Yellow cards
1.25 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Milton Keynes Dons v 
Luton