Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley

12th4–124th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Milton Keynes Dons		Bromley
22	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	5
9	Fouls	16
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
400	Passes	268
60%	Possession %	40%
2.38	xG	0.87

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Milton Keynes Dons 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.18

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Milton Keynes Dons -0.5

1.65Betano · fair 1.57 · qualifies at 1.61+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Milton Keynes Dons -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Betano — Milton Keynes Dons must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 64%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.57. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 5.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Milton Keynes Dons 1.74, Bromley 1.18.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Milton Keynes Dons	49.8%	2.01	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	-10.1
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.04	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	+1.7
Match result	Bromley	25.4%	3.93	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+7.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.4%	1.26	1.23 BetVictor	81.3%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.6%	4.85	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.8%	1.79	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-5.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.2%	2.27	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.5%	2.99	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.5%	1.50	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.7%	1.73	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.3%	2.36	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-3.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Milton Keynes Dons favoured against Bromley

Our model makes Milton Keynes Dons 50% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 25% and Bromley at 25%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Milton Keynes Dons against 1.18 for Bromley — a substantial edge to Milton Keynes Dons on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Milton Keynes Dons and Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons		Bromley
13	Played	13
4-6-3	W-D-L	2-3-8
1.38	Pts / game	0.69
1.69	Goals for / game	1.00
1.54	Goals against / game	2.54
54%	Over 2.5	62%
69%	BTTS	62%
23%	Clean sheets	8%
23%	Failed to score	31%
3-3-1	Home record	1-2-3
1-3-2	Away record	1-1-5
W3	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Milton Keynes Dons · Bromley

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.7	Shots	9.0
5.0	Shots on target	3.2
5.2	Corners	3.3
1.83	Cards	2.67
13.7	Fouls	13.2
49	Possession %	34
1.93	xG	0.83
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	18.0
4.0	Shots on target	5.8
5.0	Corners	7.2
1.67	Cards	1.50
11.5	Fouls	11.3
51	Possession %	67
1.35	xG	2.07
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Milton Keynes Dons	Metric	Bromley
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
1.20 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.54
	Big chances
5.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
16.20 (better)	Total shots	7.20
	Touches in opp. box
6.80 (better)	Corners	2.80
49.0 (better)	Possession %	31.4
355 (better)	Passes	236
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	12.20 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Milton Keynes Dons wins: 2
Draws: 0
Bromley wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley4–12026-10-27
Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley2–12026-04-11
Bromley v Milton Keynes Dons2–12025-10-25

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5