Mexico v Chile

0–2

02:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Mexico		Chile
15	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	2
9	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	1
601	Passes	329
64%	Possession %	36%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Mexico 55%
Likely score: 1-0 12%
Expected goals: 1.68 – 0.90

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Mexico	55.0%	1.82	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-6.7
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.94	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+1.0
Match result	Chile	19.6%	5.10	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+2.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.5%	1.36	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.5%	3.77	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	+3.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.3%	1.91	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.0%	3.85	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.0%	1.35	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.0%	2.04	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.0%	1.96	2.05 William Hill	48.8%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.7%	2.10	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mexico favoured against Chile

Our model makes Mexico 55% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 25% and Chile at 20%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Mexico against 0.90 for Chile — a substantial edge to Mexico on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 12%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Mexico and Chile
Mexico		Chile
12	Played	5
6-4-2	W-D-L	2-0-3
1.83	Pts / game	1.20
1.42	Goals for / game	1.40
0.75	Goals against / game	1.60
25%	Over 2.5	60%
33%	BTTS	60%
50%	Clean sheets	20%
25%	Failed to score	20%
4-4-1	Home record	0-0-0
2-0-1	Away record	2-0-3
L2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Mexico · Chile

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	9.7
2.3	Shots on target	4.7
3.8	Corners	5.7
2.25	Cards	2.33
10.8	Fouls	9.7
59	Possession %	42
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
5.8	Shots	12.7
2.5	Shots on target	5.0
2.8	Corners	4.7
2.25	Cards	1.00
13.8	Fouls	9.0
41	Possession %	58
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Mexico	Metric	Chile
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.29	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.20 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
14.00 (better)	Total shots	7.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.60 (better)	Corners	2.33
50.6 (better)	Possession %	45.0
414 (better)	Passes	312
	Tackles
13.00 (better)	Fouls	14.00
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.33
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Mexico wins: 0
Draws: 0
Chile wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Mexico v Chile0–22026-10-07