Manchester City v 
Brighton
Match statistics
| Manchester City | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 3 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 3 |
| 527 | Passes | 391 |
| 57% | Possession % | 43% |
| 0.80 | xG | 2.05 |
- Over 1.5
- 84%
- Over 2.5
- 64%
- Over 3.5
- 42%
- Both score
- 65%
- Model pick
- Manchester City 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.74 – 1.54
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Manchester City -0.75
Why this price?
Back Manchester City -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.80 with Bet365 — Manchester City must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.67. The offered 1.80 implies only 56%, so the price is 7.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Manchester City 1.74, Brighton 1.54.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Manchester City | 42.3% | 2.36 | 1.87 Betano | 53.5% | -11.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 4.60 Betfair | 21.7% | +2.2 |
| Match result | Brighton | 33.7% | 2.97 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | +12.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 84.4% | 1.18 | 1.14 Bet365 | 87.7% | -3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 15.6% | 6.42 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -3.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 41.6% | 2.40 | 2.15 Betano | 46.5% | -4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.53 Betfair | 65.4% | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | -0.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Manchester City favoured against Brighton
Our model makes Manchester City 42% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Brighton at 34%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Manchester City against 1.54 for Brighton — a slight edge to Manchester City on expected output. A combined 3.28 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 6%
This season
| Manchester City | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 7-0-3 | W-D-L | 7-1-2 |
| 2.10 | Pts / game | 2.20 |
| 2.10 | Goals for / game | 2.60 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game | 0.70 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 60% | BTTS | 20% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 70% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 4-0-1 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 3-0-2 | Away record | 3-0-2 |
| L3 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Manchester City · Brighton
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.9 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.14 | Cards | 2.88 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 64 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.99 | xG | 1.64 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 11.6 | Shots | 11.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 2.7 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.88 | Cards | 0.88 |
| 16.6 | Fouls | 8.9 |
| 36 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.58 | xG | 0.98 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Manchester City | Metric | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 (better) | Goals scored | 3.40 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 2.62 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 2.19 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.40 | Shots on target | 6.40 |
| 18.80 | Total shots | 20.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 | Corners | 6.80 (better) |
| 61.6 (better) | Possession % | 54.2 |
| 592 (better) | Passes | 478 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.40 (better) | Fouls | 12.60 |
| 1.50 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Manchester City wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Brighton wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 75%
- Manchester City v Brighton0–12026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton2–22026-10-28
- Manchester City v Brighton1–12026-01-07
- Brighton v Manchester City2–12025-08-31