Predicted Edge

Maghreb Fès v ASEC Mimosas

Maghreb Fès won 2 of the last 41–1ASEC Mimosas won 1 of the last 4

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Maghreb Fès ASEC Mimosas
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
—Yellow cards—
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
50%
Model pick
Maghreb Fès 49%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.98

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultMaghreb Fès49.1%2.041.45 Bet36569.0%-19.9
Match resultDraw27.3%3.673.60 Bet36527.8%-0.5
Match resultASEC Mimosas23.6%4.2312.00 William Hill8.3%+15.3
Total goalsOver 1.572.1%1.391.75 BetVictor57.1%+14.9
Total goalsUnder 1.527.9%3.582.01 BetVictor49.8%-21.8
Total goalsOver 2.545.7%2.193.50 BetVictor28.6%+17.1
Total goalsUnder 2.554.3%1.841.33 Bet36575.2%-20.9
Total goalsOver 3.524.3%4.128.50 BetVictor11.8%+12.5
Total goalsUnder 3.575.7%1.321.06 BetVictor94.3%-18.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes49.6%2.024.00 BetVictor25.0%+24.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No50.4%1.981.25 William Hill80.0%-29.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Maghreb Fès favoured against ASEC Mimosas

Our model makes Maghreb Fès 49% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 27% and ASEC Mimosas at 24%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Maghreb Fès against 0.98 for ASEC Mimosas — a substantial edge to Maghreb Fès on expected output. A combined 2.50 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 12%
2-0 9%
2-1 9%
0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas
Maghreb Fès ASEC Mimosas
4Played4
2-2-0W-D-L1-2-1
2.00Pts / game1.25
1.75Goals for / game1.25
0.75Goals against / game1.25
50%Over 2.550%
75%BTTS100%
25%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score0%
1-1-0Home record1-0-1
1-1-0Away record0-2-0
W1StreakL1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Maghreb Fès · ASEC Mimosas

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Cards—
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Maghreb FèsMetricASEC Mimosas
1.60 (better)Goals scored0.80
0.60 (better)Goals conceded0.80
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
6.00Shots on target
16.00Total shots
Touches in opp. box
4.00Corners
61.0Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
3.00Yellow cards
0.00Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Maghreb Fès wins
1
Draws
1
ASEC Mimosas wins
0
Goals / game
2.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
100%