ASEC Mimosas won 1 of the last 4LDWD1–2Maghreb Fès won 2 of the last 4WDDW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
ASEC Mimosas
Maghreb Fès
—
Shots
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Corners
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
—
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
39%
29%
33%
1 · ASEC MimosasXMaghreb Fès · 2
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
22%
Both score
50%
Model pick
ASEC Mimosas 39%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.14
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.4%
1.98
1.73 William Hill
57.8%
-7.4
Match result
ASEC Mimosas
38.6%
2.59
2.60 Dafabet
38.5%
+0.1
Match result
Draw
28.8%
3.47
3.00 BetVictor
33.3%
-4.5
Match result
Maghreb Fès
32.6%
3.07
2.90 Dafabet
34.5%
-1.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
70.0%
1.43
1.52 Betano
65.8%
+4.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
30.0%
3.34
—
—
—
Total goals
Over 2.5
43.3%
2.31
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
+3.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
56.7%
1.76
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-10.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
22.3%
4.47
5.25 BetVictor
19.0%
+3.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.29
1.13 BetVictor
88.5%
-10.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.6%
2.02
2.05 BetVictor
48.8%
+0.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
ASEC Mimosas v Maghreb Fès: too close to call
Our model makes ASEC Mimosas 39% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Maghreb Fès at 33%. The goal projection is 1.27 for ASEC Mimosas against 1.14 for Maghreb Fès — a slight edge to ASEC Mimosas on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
ASEC Mimosas
Metric
Maghreb Fès
0.80
Goals scored
1.00 (better)
0.80
Goals conceded
0.80
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
4.00
—
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.00
—
Possession %
59.5
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
2.67
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
ASEC Mimosas v 
Maghreb Fès