Luton v Leicester

4th2–110th

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Luton		Leicester
11	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	5
9	Corners	8
8	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	3
377	Passes	514
42%	Possession %	58%
1.68	xG	1.09

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Luton 54%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.25

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.7%	2.72	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-1.3
Match result	Luton	54.4%	1.84	2.25 Betano	44.4%	+9.9
Match result	Draw	22.5%	4.44	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-3.1
Match result	Leicester	23.1%	4.33	2.95 Dafabet	33.9%	-10.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.2%	1.19	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.8%	6.31	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.3%	1.58	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.1%	2.43	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.9%	1.70	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.4%	1.60	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.6%	2.66	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+2.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Luton favoured against Leicester

Our model makes Luton 54% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 23% and Leicester at 23%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Luton against 1.25 for Leicester — a substantial edge to Luton on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Luton and Leicester
Luton		Leicester
14	Played	13
7-3-4	W-D-L	5-4-4
1.71	Pts / game	1.46
1.93	Goals for / game	1.69
1.50	Goals against / game	1.46
64%	Over 2.5	69%
79%	BTTS	62%
14%	Clean sheets	31%
7%	Failed to score	15%
4-2-1	Home record	3-1-3
3-1-3	Away record	2-3-1
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Luton · Leicester

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.9	Shots	15.3
5.9	Shots on target	6.2
5.7	Corners	7.3
1.14	Cards	1.50
12.6	Fouls	13.2
49	Possession %	65
1.84	xG	2.12
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.7	Shots	10.5
4.7	Shots on target	4.2
5.6	Corners	5.7
1.29	Cards	1.83
12.0	Fouls	11.5
51	Possession %	36
1.29	xG	1.06
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Luton	Metric	Leicester
2.75 (better)	Goals scored	2.60
0.75 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.86	Expected goals (xG)	1.97 (better)
	Big chances
6.25	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
14.75	Total shots	21.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
8.50 (better)	Corners	8.20
53.8	Possession %	67.0 (better)
462	Passes	645 (better)
	Tackles
11.50 (better)	Fouls	11.80
2.33 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	1.25
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Luton wins: 1
Draws: 0
Leicester wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Luton v Leicester2–12026-10-24

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5