Leicester v Wigan

10th3–021st

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Leicester		Wigan
14	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	3
20	Fouls	11
4	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
676	Passes	370
64%	Possession %	36%
2.91	xG	1.07

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Leicester 42%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.23

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.63Betfair · fair 2.36 · qualifies at 2.46+ · 1.75u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.63 with Betfair — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.36. The offered 2.63 implies only 38%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.75 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Leicester 1.48, Wigan 1.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Leicester -1

1.71Marathonbet · fair 1.62 · qualifies at 1.66+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Leicester -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.71 with Marathonbet — Leicester must win by more than 1 goal.

Our model puts the chance at 27% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 85%; we judge it at 62%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.62. The offered 1.71 implies only 58%, so the price is 5.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Leicester 1.48, Wigan 1.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Leicester	42.2%	2.37	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-28.2
Match result	Draw	26.8%	3.74	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+7.5
Match result	Wigan	31.0%	3.23	7.50 Bet365	13.3%	+17.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.9%	1.32	1.17 Betano	85.5%	-9.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.1%	4.14	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.8%	1.97	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-15.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.2%	2.03	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	+12.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.7%	3.48	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-15.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.3%	1.40	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+10.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.2%	1.81	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.8%	2.23	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Leicester favoured against Wigan

Our model makes Leicester 42% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 27% and Wigan at 31%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Leicester against 1.23 for Wigan — a slight edge to Leicester on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Leicester and Wigan
Leicester		Wigan
13	Played	14
5-4-4	W-D-L	3-2-9
1.46	Pts / game	0.79
1.69	Goals for / game	0.79
1.46	Goals against / game	1.57
69%	Over 2.5	50%
62%	BTTS	36%
31%	Clean sheets	21%
15%	Failed to score	57%
3-1-3	Home record	3-1-3
2-3-1	Away record	0-1-6
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leicester · Wigan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	10.0
6.2	Shots on target	3.0
7.3	Corners	4.1
1.50	Cards	2.86
13.2	Fouls	11.3
65	Possession %	50
2.12	xG	1.09
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	15.9
4.2	Shots on target	5.1
5.7	Corners	5.1
1.83	Cards	3.14
11.5	Fouls	15.1
36	Possession %	50
1.06	xG	2.17
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leicester	Metric	Wigan
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
2.25 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.59
	Big chances
7.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
22.20 (better)	Total shots	11.25
	Touches in opp. box
9.20 (better)	Corners	4.75
68.2 (better)	Possession %	55.8
632 (better)	Passes	488
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	12.00 (better)
2.50 (better)	Offsides	3.25
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	3.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Leicester wins: 1
Draws: 0
Wigan wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Leicester v Wigan3–02026-10-27

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5