Leicester v Stevenage

10th2–216th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Leicester		Stevenage
17	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
11	Corners	2
14	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
675	Passes	338
66%	Possession %	34%
2.12	xG	1.20

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Leicester 38%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.18

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Leicester -0.75

2.00Bet365 · fair 1.79 · qualifies at 1.84+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Leicester -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.00 with Bet365 — Leicester must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.79. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Leicester 1.28, Stevenage 1.18.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.7%	1.97	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.3%	2.03	2.20 William Hill	45.5%	+3.8
Match result	Leicester	38.0%	2.63	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-18.1
Match result	Draw	28.5%	3.51	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+4.7
Match result	Stevenage	33.5%	2.99	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+13.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.2%	1.41	1.22 BetVictor	82.0%	-10.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.8%	3.47	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+6.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.7%	2.24	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-15.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.3%	1.81	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+10.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.5%	4.26	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-12.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.5%	1.31	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+8.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Leicester v Stevenage: too close to call

Our model makes Leicester 38% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 28% and Stevenage at 33%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Leicester against 1.18 for Stevenage — almost nothing to Leicester on expected output. A combined 2.46 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Leicester and Stevenage
Leicester		Stevenage
13	Played	12
5-4-4	W-D-L	4-4-4
1.46	Pts / game	1.33
1.69	Goals for / game	1.42
1.46	Goals against / game	1.08
69%	Over 2.5	50%
62%	BTTS	50%
31%	Clean sheets	25%
15%	Failed to score	33%
3-1-3	Home record	3-1-2
2-3-1	Away record	1-3-2
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leicester · Stevenage

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	12.4
6.2	Shots on target	4.0
7.3	Corners	3.8
1.50	Cards	1.00
13.2	Fouls	10.2
65	Possession %	45
2.12	xG	1.24
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	12.2
4.2	Shots on target	3.0
5.7	Corners	8.2
1.83	Cards	1.80
11.5	Fouls	14.6
36	Possession %	55
1.06	xG	1.43
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leicester	Metric	Stevenage
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.50
1.40	Goals conceded	0.75 (better)
2.24 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.45
	Big chances
7.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
21.40 (better)	Total shots	13.50
	Touches in opp. box
7.60 (better)	Corners	3.75
67.4 (better)	Possession %	40.3
649 (better)	Passes	321
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	9.75 (better)
2.25	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.75	Yellow cards	0.67 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Leicester wins: 0
Draws: 1
Stevenage wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Leicester v Stevenage2–22026-10-31

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5