Leicester v Doncaster

10th2–120th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Leicester		Doncaster
14	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	7
12	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
458	Passes	386
54%	Possession %	46%
1.80	xG	0.62

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Leicester 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Leicester	41.2%	2.43	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-11.2
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.74	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+1.7
Match result	Doncaster	32.1%	3.12	3.90 BetVictor	25.6%	+6.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.3%	1.31	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-8.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.7%	4.22	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.4%	1.95	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-12.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.6%	2.06	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+7.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.3%	3.42	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-12.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.7%	1.41	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.8%	1.79	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.2%	2.26	2.50 BetVictor	40.0%	+4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Leicester favoured against Doncaster

Our model makes Leicester 41% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 27% and Doncaster at 32%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Leicester against 1.27 for Doncaster — a slight edge to Leicester on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Leicester and Doncaster
Leicester		Doncaster
13	Played	13
5-4-4	W-D-L	3-3-7
1.46	Pts / game	0.92
1.69	Goals for / game	1.08
1.46	Goals against / game	1.69
69%	Over 2.5	46%
62%	BTTS	54%
31%	Clean sheets	31%
15%	Failed to score	23%
3-1-3	Home record	2-2-2
2-3-1	Away record	1-1-5
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leicester · Doncaster

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	12.8
6.2	Shots on target	2.7
7.3	Corners	5.2
1.50	Cards	2.50
13.2	Fouls	10.0
65	Possession %	43
2.12	xG	0.77
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	18.2
4.2	Shots on target	7.3
5.7	Corners	6.3
1.83	Cards	1.67
11.5	Fouls	12.8
36	Possession %	57
1.06	xG	2.29
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leicester	Metric	Doncaster
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.50 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.46
	Big chances
6.60 (better)	Shots on target	5.50
19.80 (better)	Total shots	15.50
	Touches in opp. box
8.60 (better)	Corners	4.75
59.6 (better)	Possession %	50.5
617 (better)	Passes	399
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	11.25 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Leicester wins: 1
Draws: 0
Doncaster wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Leicester v Doncaster2–12026-10-17

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5