Lausanne v FC Thun

12th4–58th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lausanne		FC Thun
11	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	8
9	Corners	4
16	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
266	Passes	376
42%	Possession %	58%
2.04	xG	2.96

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: FC Thun 46%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.74

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Lausanne -0.75

2.79Marathonbet · fair 2.53 · qualifies at 2.61+ · 1.44u

Why this price?

Back Lausanne -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.79 with Marathonbet — Lausanne must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 23% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.53. The offered 2.79 implies only 36%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.44 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lausanne 1.35, FC Thun 1.74.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lausanne	29.4%	3.40	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	-9.8
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-1.2
Match result	FC Thun	46.1%	2.17	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	+7.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.9%	1.22	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.1%	5.54	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.7%	1.68	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.3%	2.48	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+1.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.3%	2.68	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.7%	1.59	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.6%	1.62	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.4%	2.61	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	+2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Thun favoured against Lausanne

Our model makes Lausanne 29% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and FC Thun at 46%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Lausanne against 1.74 for FC Thun — a clear edge to FC Thun on expected output. A combined 3.09 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 7%; 2-1 7%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Lausanne and FC Thun
Lausanne		FC Thun
13	Played	13
1-4-8	W-D-L	4-2-7
0.54	Pts / game	1.08
0.92	Goals for / game	2.08
1.77	Goals against / game	2.85
38%	Over 2.5	85%
46%	BTTS	77%
15%	Clean sheets	8%
46%	Failed to score	23%
0-2-4	Home record	0-2-4
1-2-4	Away record	4-0-3
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lausanne · FC Thun

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	15.6
4.4	Shots on target	6.0
7.8	Corners	5.4
2.80	Cards	2.20
14.8	Fouls	16.8
49	Possession %	46
1.35	xG	1.85
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	15.8
4.8	Shots on target	5.2
4.8	Corners	4.8
2.20	Cards	1.40
12.4	Fouls	12.8
51	Possession %	54
2.05	xG	1.63
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lausanne	Metric	FC Thun
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
0.82	Expected goals (xG)	0.98 (better)
	Big chances
3.75 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
10.25	Total shots	10.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	3.00
47.3 (better)	Possession %	39.3
385 (better)	Passes	299
	Tackles
17.00 (better)	Fouls	19.67
1.50	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
0.50 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lausanne wins: 1
Draws: 1
FC Thun wins: 3
Goals / game: 4.20
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 80%

Lausanne v FC Thun4–52026-11-01
FC Thun v Lausanne0–02026-09-02
FC Thun v Lausanne5–12026-02-12
Lausanne v FC Thun2–12025-11-30
FC Thun v Lausanne2–12025-08-03

Swiss Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Lugano	13	11	1	1	+21	34	FC Lugano won 4 of the last 5
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	+16	28	BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	+11	26	FC Sion won 2 of the last 5
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+2	22	FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	-1	21	FC Zurich won 3 of the last 5
6	Servette FC	13	5	2	6	+1	17	Servette FC won 2 of the last 5
7	FC Basel 1893	13	4	3	6	-4	15	FC Basel 1893 won 0 of the last 5
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	-10	14	FC Thun won 2 of the last 5
9	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	-7	13	FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-13	11	Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	-5	10	FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	-11	7	Lausanne won 0 of the last 5