Lahti v Turku PS

7th5–19th

11:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lahti		Turku PS
28	Shots	8
15	Shots on target	4
9	Corners	0
11	Fouls	7
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
518	Passes	276
59%	Possession %	41%
4.87	xG	1.11

Over 1.5: 61%
Over 2.5: 34%
Over 3.5: 15%
Both score: 41%

Model pick: Lahti 41%
Likely score: 1-0 14%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 0.89

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lahti	40.9%	2.45	1.73 William Hill	57.8%	-16.9
Match result	Draw	31.4%	3.18	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+6.4
Match result	Turku PS	27.7%	3.61	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+5.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	61.3%	1.63	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-20.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	38.7%	2.58	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+15.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	33.5%	2.98	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-25.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	66.5%	1.50	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+20.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	15.1%	6.62	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	-21.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	84.9%	1.18	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+16.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	41.1%	2.44	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-18.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	58.9%	1.70	2.15 William Hill	46.5%	+12.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lahti favoured against Turku PS

Our model makes Lahti 41% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 31% and Turku PS at 28%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Lahti against 0.89 for Turku PS — a clear edge to Lahti on expected output. A combined 2.04 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 34% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 14%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 14%; 0-1 11%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Lahti and Turku PS
Lahti		Turku PS
27	Played	27
11-6-10	W-D-L	8-8-11
1.44	Pts / game	1.19
1.30	Goals for / game	1.07
0.96	Goals against / game	1.22
37%	Over 2.5	44%
48%	BTTS	48%
33%	Clean sheets	30%
26%	Failed to score	33%
7-4-3	Home record	7-3-4
4-2-7	Away record	1-5-7
W1	Streak	L4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lahti · Turku PS

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
21.0	Shots	14.5
9.0	Shots on target	5.0
9.0	Corners	3.5
2.00	Cards	2.00
12.0	Fouls	7.0
59	Possession %	53
2.81	xG	1.98
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	23.5
5.0	Shots on target	9.5
1.5	Corners	9.0
1.50	Cards	2.50
11.0	Fouls	11.5
41	Possession %	48
1.49	xG	3.37
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lahti	Metric	Turku PS
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.20
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.74	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.67 (better)
16.75	Total shots	19.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners	7.00 (better)
63.0 (better)	Possession %	56.3
581 (better)	Passes	450
	Tackles
10.25 (better)	Fouls	11.67
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lahti wins: 1
Draws: 1
Turku PS wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Lahti v Turku PS5–12026-10-17
Lahti v Turku PS0–02026-06-23
Turku PS v Lahti2–12026-04-10

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2