KuPS v VPS

3rd2–06th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
KuPS		VPS
10	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
1	Corners	5
9	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
542	Passes	465
42%	Possession %	58%
1.69	xG	0.80

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: KuPS 53%
Likely score: 1-0 14%
Expected goals: 1.54 – 0.84

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

KuPS -0.75

1.64Marathonbet · fair 1.49 · qualifies at 1.53+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back KuPS -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.64 with Marathonbet — KuPS must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 81%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.49. The offered 1.64 implies only 61%, so the price is 10.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: KuPS 1.54, VPS 0.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	KuPS	53.2%	1.88	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-9.3
Match result	Draw	27.1%	3.69	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	+2.7
Match result	VPS	19.7%	5.08	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+1.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.5%	1.44	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.5%	3.28	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.6%	1.83	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.6%	2.35	1.91 Betano	52.4%	-9.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.4%	1.74	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	+8.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.8%	4.59	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-6.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.2%	1.28	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.4%	2.20	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-5.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

KuPS favoured against VPS

Our model makes KuPS 53% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 27% and VPS at 20%. The goal projection is 1.54 for KuPS against 0.84 for VPS — a substantial edge to KuPS on expected output. A combined 2.38 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 14%; 1-1 13%; 2-0 11%; 0-0 10%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for KuPS and VPS
KuPS		VPS
32	Played	32
14-11-7	W-D-L	11-7-14
1.66	Pts / game	1.25
1.44	Goals for / game	1.00
1.03	Goals against / game	1.34
34%	Over 2.5	38%
53%	BTTS	41%
28%	Clean sheets	28%
25%	Failed to score	41%
7-6-3	Home record	7-3-6
7-5-4	Away record	4-4-8
L2	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. KuPS · VPS

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.9	Shots	9.9
5.3	Shots on target	2.6
7.3	Corners	4.6
1.86	Cards	1.86
12.3	Fouls	13.9
57	Possession %	53
1.18	xG	1.01
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.6	Shots	13.4
3.6	Shots on target	5.0
2.7	Corners	4.0
2.00	Cards	1.14
13.4	Fouls	10.4
43	Possession %	47
1.23	xG	1.72
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
KuPS	Metric	VPS
0.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.20
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.77	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.00 (better)	Shots on target	1.75
13.75 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	5.75
53.3 (better)	Possession %	51.0
533 (better)	Passes	357
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	15.50
0.75 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	3.75
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

KuPS wins: 3
Draws: 2
VPS wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.40
Over 2.5: 20%
Both score: 60%

KuPS v VPS2–02026-10-18
VPS v KuPS0–22026-09-19
KuPS v VPS3–12026-07-25
VPS v KuPS1–12026-06-13
VPS v KuPS1–12025-07-19

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2