KuPS v Gnistan

3rd1–15th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
KuPS		Gnistan
17	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	1
12	Corners	5
15	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
484	Passes	349
67%	Possession %	33%
1.37	xG	1.07

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: KuPS 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.03

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.32Betano · fair 2.21 · qualifies at 2.30+ · 0.93u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.32 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.21. The offered 2.32 implies only 43%, so the price is 4.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: KuPS 1.61, Gnistan 1.03.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	26.1%	3.83	4.70 Dafabet	21.3%	+4.8
Match result	Gnistan	23.6%	4.23	6.40 Dafabet	15.6%	+8.0
Match result	KuPS	50.3%	1.99	1.55 Dafabet	64.5%	-14.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.0%	1.96	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	+8.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.1%	3.69	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.9%	1.37	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.9%	1.93	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.1%	2.08	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-0.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.5%	1.34	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-8.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.5%	3.92	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.0%	2.04	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-10.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

KuPS favoured against Gnistan

Our model makes KuPS 50% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Gnistan at 24%. The goal projection is 1.61 for KuPS against 1.03 for Gnistan — a substantial edge to KuPS on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for KuPS and Gnistan
KuPS		Gnistan
32	Played	32
14-11-7	W-D-L	12-10-10
1.66	Pts / game	1.44
1.44	Goals for / game	1.63
1.03	Goals against / game	1.47
34%	Over 2.5	47%
53%	BTTS	59%
28%	Clean sheets	19%
25%	Failed to score	25%
7-6-3	Home record	7-5-4
7-5-4	Away record	5-5-6
L2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. KuPS · Gnistan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.9	Shots	13.1
5.3	Shots on target	4.9
7.3	Corners	5.3
1.86	Cards	1.43
12.3	Fouls	13.6
57	Possession %	44
1.18	xG	1.21
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.6	Shots	16.1
3.6	Shots on target	6.3
2.7	Corners	7.4
2.00	Cards	1.43
13.4	Fouls	11.6
43	Possession %	56
1.23	xG	1.99
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
KuPS	Metric	Gnistan
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.44 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.62
	Big chances
4.20 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
11.00	Total shots	12.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.40
45.8 (better)	Possession %	42.8
458 (better)	Passes	322
	Tackles
10.60 (better)	Fouls	12.80
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

KuPS wins: 4
Draws: 3
Gnistan wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.86
Over 2.5: 29%
Both score: 57%

KuPS v Gnistan1–12026-10-29
Gnistan v KuPS1–12026-09-08
Gnistan v KuPS0–12026-08-01
KuPS v Gnistan1–02026-04-11
KuPS v Gnistan1–12025-10-30
Gnistan v KuPS0–42025-09-27
KuPS v Gnistan6–22025-07-01

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2