KuPS v 
Gent
Match statistics
| KuPS | Gent | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 561 | Passes | 493 |
| 53% | Possession % | 47% |
| 0.26 | xG | 1.51 |
- Over 1.5
- 63%
- Over 2.5
- 35%
- Over 3.5
- 16%
- Both score
- 43%
- Model pick
- KuPS 35%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.07 – 1.04
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 65% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 55%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.81. The offered 2.02 implies only 50%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: KuPS 1.07, Gent 1.04.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | KuPS | 35.2% | 2.84 | 5.80 Dafabet | 17.2% | +17.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 31.3% | 3.20 | 4.10 Betano | 24.4% | +6.9 |
| Match result | Gent | 33.6% | 2.98 | 1.69 Dafabet | 59.2% | -25.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | -14.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 37.2% | 2.69 | 3.75 Betano | 26.7% | +10.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -16.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | +13.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 16.2% | 6.17 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | -13.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.36 Betano | 73.5% | +10.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | -7.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 57.0% | 1.75 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +7.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
KuPS v Gent: too close to call
Our model makes KuPS 35% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 31% and Gent at 34%. The goal projection is 1.07 for KuPS against 1.04 for Gent — almost nothing to KuPS on expected output. A combined 2.10 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 13%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-1 12%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| KuPS | Gent | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Played | 11 |
| 14-11-7 | W-D-L | 9-1-1 |
| 1.66 | Pts / game | 2.55 |
| 1.44 | Goals for / game | 1.82 |
| 1.03 | Goals against / game | 0.55 |
| 34% | Over 2.5 | 45% |
| 53% | BTTS | 36% |
| 28% | Clean sheets | 55% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 7-6-3 | Home record | 6-0-0 |
| 7-5-4 | Away record | 3-1-1 |
| L2 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. KuPS · Gent
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.7 | Shots | 14.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 6.5 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.84 | Cards | 1.71 |
| 12.7 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 56 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.12 | xG | 1.50 |
| 10 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.3 | Shots | 13.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.57 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 14.6 |
| 44 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.62 | xG | 1.08 |
| 10 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| KuPS | Metric | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.38 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.77 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.75 |
| 12.80 | Total shots | 13.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.40 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 48.0 (better) | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 441 | Passes | 471 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 9.50 (better) |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 | Yellow cards | 1.50 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- KuPS wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Gent wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 0.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- KuPS v Gent0–02026-11-05
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | FC Lugano won 3 of the last 3 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Panathinaikos won 3 of the last 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Twente won 3 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Monaco won 3 of the last 3 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 | Brighton won 2 of the last 3 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Brann won 2 of the last 3 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 3 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Universitatea Craiova won 2 of the last 3 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Mjallby AIF won 2 of the last 3 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | St. Truiden won 2 of the last 3 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 | Ajax won 2 of the last 3 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | Trabzonspor won 2 of the last 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | HNK Hajduk Split won 2 of the last 3 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 3 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 1 of the last 3 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 3 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 3 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | Gent won 1 of the last 3 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | FC Thun won 1 of the last 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Riga won 0 of the last 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka won 1 of the last 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 3 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 3 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 3 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 3 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Pafos won 0 of the last 3 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 3 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | KuPS won 0 of the last 3 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 3 |