Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5LWLWL16th4–0SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5LDDLW17th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Karlsruher SC
SV Darmstadt 98
15
Shots
9
7
Shots on target
1
4
Corners
4
15
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
2
—
Red cards
—
0
Offsides
1
380
Passes
552
41%
Possession %
59%
1.20
xG
0.50
39%
24%
37%
1 · Karlsruher SCXSV Darmstadt 98 · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
68%
Model pick
Karlsruher SC 39%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.69
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Karlsruher SC
39.0%
2.57
2.27 Betano
44.1%
-5.1
Match result
Draw
23.7%
4.22
4.00 Betfair
25.0%
-1.3
Match result
SV Darmstadt 98
37.3%
2.68
2.92 Betano
34.2%
+3.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.1%
1.16
1.14 Betano
87.7%
-1.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.9%
7.21
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-2.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.5%
1.50
1.49 BetVictor
67.1%
-0.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.5%
2.98
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
-1.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.6%
2.24
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-3.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.4%
1.81
1.78 Betano
56.2%
-0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.7%
1.48
1.40 Betano
71.4%
-3.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.3%
3.10
2.88 BetVictor
34.7%
-2.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98: too close to call
Our model makes Karlsruher SC 39% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and SV Darmstadt 98 at 37%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Karlsruher SC against 1.69 for SV Darmstadt 98 — almost nothing to Karlsruher SC on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 5%
This season
Season records for Karlsruher SC and SV Darmstadt 98
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Karlsruher SC
Metric
SV Darmstadt 98
1.20
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
2.40
Goals conceded
2.00 (better)
1.38
Expected goals (xG)
1.39 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.50
16.75 (better)
Total shots
12.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.75 (better)
Corners
4.75
44.8 (better)
Possession %
41.0
372 (better)
Passes
344
—
Tackles
—
13.50
Fouls
13.00 (better)
2.75
Offsides
2.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.50
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Karlsruher SC v 
SV Darmstadt 98