Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5LWLWL16th2–11. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5DLDLD7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Heidenheim
13
Shots
18
9
Shots on target
7
4
Corners
6
8
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
355
Passes
423
45%
Possession %
55%
1.58
xG
1.32
41%
23%
36%
1 · Karlsruher SCX1. FC Heidenheim · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
49%
Both score
71%
Model pick
Karlsruher SC 41%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.76
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Karlsruher SC
41.1%
2.43
3.25 Dafabet
30.8%
+10.4
Match result
Draw
22.6%
4.42
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
-3.0
Match result
1. FC Heidenheim
36.3%
2.76
2.10 Betano
47.6%
-11.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.3%
1.13
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+2.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.7%
8.57
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-5.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
70.6%
1.42
1.50 Betano
66.7%
+3.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
29.4%
3.40
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
-7.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
49.5%
2.02
2.22 Betano
45.0%
+4.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
50.5%
1.98
1.70 Betano
58.8%
-8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
29.3%
3.41
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
-5.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
70.7%
1.41
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
+1.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Karlsruher SC v 1. FC Heidenheim: too close to call
Our model makes Karlsruher SC 41% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and 1. FC Heidenheim at 36%. The goal projection is 1.88 for Karlsruher SC against 1.76 for 1. FC Heidenheim — a slight edge to Karlsruher SC on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 9%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
3-1 5%
This season
Season records for Karlsruher SC and 1. FC Heidenheim
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Karlsruher SC
Metric
1. FC Heidenheim
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
0.92
Expected goals (xG)
2.19 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.75
Shots on target
7.00 (better)
12.00
Total shots
23.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00
Corners
10.00 (better)
43.8
Possession %
49.7 (better)
392 (better)
Passes
354
—
Tackles
—
15.00
Fouls
8.33 (better)
1.50 (better)
Offsides
3.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Karlsruher SC v 
1. FC Heidenheim