Inter Turku v HJK Helsinki

1st2–42nd

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Inter Turku		HJK Helsinki
7	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	7
1	Corners	4
12	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
501	Passes	423
52%	Possession %	48%
1.06	xG	2.74

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Inter Turku 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.24

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Inter Turku -0.5

2.15Betano · fair 1.96 · qualifies at 2.02+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Inter Turku -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Betano — Inter Turku must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.96. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 9.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Inter Turku 1.42, HJK Helsinki 1.24.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Inter Turku	40.7%	2.46	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-2.4
Match result	Draw	27.1%	3.69	3.50 Betano	28.6%	-1.5
Match result	HJK Helsinki	32.2%	3.10	3.05 Dafabet	32.8%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.1%	1.33	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.9%	4.02	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.8%	2.01	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.2%	1.99	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.8%	3.60	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.2%	1.39	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.6%	1.83	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-5.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.4%	2.20	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-0.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter Turku favoured against HJK Helsinki

Our model makes Inter Turku 41% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 27% and HJK Helsinki at 32%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Inter Turku against 1.24 for HJK Helsinki — a slight edge to Inter Turku on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Inter Turku and HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku		HJK Helsinki
32	Played	32
17-10-5	W-D-L	17-8-7
1.91	Pts / game	1.84
1.34	Goals for / game	2.06
0.84	Goals against / game	1.22
34%	Over 2.5	66%
44%	BTTS	47%
53%	Clean sheets	38%
22%	Failed to score	19%
8-5-3	Home record	9-4-3
9-5-2	Away record	8-4-4
W2	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Inter Turku · HJK Helsinki

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.4	Shots	19.0
4.3	Shots on target	6.9
5.1	Corners	5.4
1.57	Cards	1.14
10.7	Fouls	9.9
54	Possession %	57
1.54	xG	3.32
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	10.7
4.1	Shots on target	3.4
4.7	Corners	4.6
2.14	Cards	3.14
12.3	Fouls	12.6
46	Possession %	43
1.17	xG	1.02
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Inter Turku	Metric	HJK Helsinki
0.80	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
2.38	Expected goals (xG)	3.67 (better)
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	6.60 (better)
15.80	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)	Corners	4.80
60.2 (better)	Possession %	55.0
556 (better)	Passes	532
	Tackles
10.60	Fouls	8.60 (better)
2.40	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	0.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Inter Turku wins: 1
Draws: 4
HJK Helsinki wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.43
Over 2.5: 57%
Both score: 86%

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2