Inter Turku v AC Oulu

1st1–24th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Inter Turku		AC Oulu
21	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	5
8	Corners	3
7	Fouls	7
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
2	Offsides	3
592	Passes	311
67%	Possession %	33%
2.29	xG	0.75

Over 1.5: 61%
Over 2.5: 34%
Over 3.5: 15%
Both score: 38%

Model pick: Inter Turku 52%
Likely score: 1-0 17%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 0.70

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Inter Turku	51.9%	1.93	1.56 Dafabet	64.1%	-12.2
Match result	Draw	29.4%	3.40	4.50 Dafabet	22.2%	+7.2
Match result	AC Oulu	18.7%	5.34	9.50 William Hill	10.5%	+8.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	61.5%	1.63	1.30 Bet365	76.9%	-15.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	38.5%	2.60	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+10.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	33.8%	2.96	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-16.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	66.2%	1.51	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	+13.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	15.3%	6.54	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-13.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	84.7%	1.18	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	38.0%	2.63	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	62.0%	1.61	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-1.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter Turku favoured against AC Oulu

Our model makes Inter Turku 52% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 29% and AC Oulu at 19%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Inter Turku against 0.70 for AC Oulu — a substantial edge to Inter Turku on expected output. A combined 2.06 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 34% and both teams to score at 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 17%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 17%; 0-0 13%; 1-1 13%; 2-0 12%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Inter Turku and AC Oulu
Inter Turku		AC Oulu
32	Played	32
17-10-5	W-D-L	14-6-12
1.91	Pts / game	1.50
1.34	Goals for / game	1.28
0.84	Goals against / game	1.25
34%	Over 2.5	41%
44%	BTTS	44%
53%	Clean sheets	38%
22%	Failed to score	28%
8-5-3	Home record	7-3-6
9-5-2	Away record	7-3-6
W2	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Inter Turku · AC Oulu

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.4	Shots	11.1
4.3	Shots on target	4.0
5.1	Corners	4.1
1.57	Cards	2.29
10.7	Fouls	11.1
54	Possession %	35
1.54	xG	1.13
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.9	Shots	19.7
4.1	Shots on target	5.4
4.7	Corners	8.4
2.14	Cards	0.29
12.3	Fouls	11.1
46	Possession %	65
1.17	xG	2.26
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Inter Turku	Metric	AC Oulu
0.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
	Expected goals (xG)	0.74
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
12.25 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.50 (better)	Corners	3.50
54.3 (better)	Possession %	47.0
537 (better)	Passes	418
	Tackles
10.50 (better)	Fouls	11.00
3.25	Offsides	3.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Inter Turku wins: 3
Draws: 1
AC Oulu wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.80
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 60%

Inter Turku v AC Oulu1–22026-10-17
AC Oulu v Inter Turku0–12026-09-18
AC Oulu v Inter Turku2–32026-08-16
Inter Turku v AC Oulu0–02026-06-13
Inter Turku v AC Oulu3–22025-08-08

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2