India v Brazil

0–4

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
India		Brazil
9	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	7
6	Corners	8
4	Fouls	7
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	11
330	Passes	652
34%	Possession %	66%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: India 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.30

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	27.5%	3.64	23.00 Bet365	4.3%	+23.1
Match result	India	37.8%	2.65	71.00 Betfair	1.4%	+36.4
Match result	Brazil	34.8%	2.88	1.03 Betfair	97.1%	-62.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.3%	1.33	1.04 Betano	96.2%	-20.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.7%	4.05	19.00 Bet365	5.3%	+19.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.9%	2.01	1.13 Betfair	88.5%	-38.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.1%	1.99	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+35.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.9%	3.59	1.36 Betfair	73.5%	-45.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.1%	1.39	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+43.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.0%	1.82	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+21.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.0%	2.22	1.57 Betfair	63.7%	-18.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

India v Brazil: too close to call

Our model makes India 38% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 27% and Brazil at 35%. The goal projection is 1.37 for India against 1.30 for Brazil — almost nothing to India on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for India and Brazil
India		Brazil
7	Played	7
0-2-5	W-D-L	5-1-1
0.29	Pts / game	2.29
0.57	Goals for / game	3.00
2.57	Goals against / game	1.29
43%	Over 2.5	86%
57%	BTTS	86%
0%	Clean sheets	14%
43%	Failed to score	0%
0-1-3	Home record	3-0-1
0-1-2	Away record	2-1-0
L2	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. India · Brazil

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	18.0
4.5	Shots on target	6.7
6.0	Corners	7.3
0.00	Cards	1.00
7.5	Fouls	9.3
39	Possession %	61
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.0	Shots	8.0
7.5	Shots on target	2.3
7.0	Corners	6.3
1.00	Cards	1.50
8.0	Fouls	10.0
62	Possession %	39
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
India	Metric	Brazil
0.60	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	2.60
	Big chances
3.33	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
	Total shots	15.60
	Touches in opp. box
1.00	Corners	5.80 (better)
44.0	Possession %	55.8 (better)
	Passes	555
	Tackles
10.00	Fouls	8.60 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.75
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

India wins: 0
Draws: 0
Brazil wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

India v Brazil0–42026-10-03