Ilves v SJK

8th2–010th

11:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ilves		SJK
6	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	1
0	Corners	10
8	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
333	Passes	522
35%	Possession %	65%
1.24	xG	1.08

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Ilves 50%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.84 – 1.29

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

SJK +0.25

2.72Marathonbet · fair 2.46 · qualifies at 2.53+ · 1.54u

Why this price?

Back SJK +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.72 with Marathonbet — SJK starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.46. The offered 2.72 implies only 37%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.54 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Ilves 1.84, SJK 1.29.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ilves	49.6%	2.02	1.91 Betano	52.4%	-2.8
Match result	Draw	23.9%	4.19	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-2.4
Match result	SJK	26.6%	3.77	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.5%	1.21	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-0.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.5%	5.70	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.5%	1.65	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.5%	2.53	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.2%	2.62	2.50 Betano	40.0%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.8%	1.62	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.5%	1.63	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.5%	2.60	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	-1.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ilves favoured against SJK

Our model makes Ilves 50% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 24% and SJK at 27%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Ilves against 1.29 for SJK — a substantial edge to Ilves on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Ilves and SJK
Ilves		SJK
27	Played	27
11-5-11	W-D-L	6-9-12
1.41	Pts / game	1.00
1.67	Goals for / game	1.07
1.44	Goals against / game	1.37
59%	Over 2.5	48%
56%	BTTS	52%
33%	Clean sheets	22%
11%	Failed to score	37%
9-1-4	Home record	5-3-5
2-4-7	Away record	1-6-7
W1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ilves · SJK

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0	Shots	14.5
3.5	Shots on target	3.5
1.5	Corners	6.5
2.50	Cards	2.50
9.0	Fouls	12.5
40	Possession %	53
1.59	xG	1.47
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	10.0
1.5	Shots on target	3.0
7.5	Corners	4.5
2.50	Cards	2.00
9.0	Fouls	10.5
61	Possession %	47
1.37	xG	0.99
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ilves	Metric	SJK
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.60	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.86
	Big chances
5.25 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
12.50 (better)	Total shots	11.50
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	4.75 (better)
41.5	Possession %	49.8 (better)
434 (better)	Passes	401
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	15.75
0.50 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	3.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ilves wins: 1
Draws: 4
SJK wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.17
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 83%

Ilves v SJK2–02026-10-17
Ilves v SJK2–22026-06-27
SJK v Ilves1–12026-05-02
Ilves v SJK3–32025-11-03
SJK v Ilves2–12025-10-04
SJK v Ilves1–12025-07-05

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2