Predicted Edge

Hungary U18 v Italy U18

Hungary U18Hungary U18 won 0 of the last 1Italy U18Italy U18 won 0 of the last 3
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Hungary U18 39%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketFree

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultHungary U1838.7%2.58———
Match resultDraw26.5%3.78———
Match resultItaly U1834.8%2.87———
Total goalsOver 1.578.2%1.28———
Total goalsUnder 1.521.8%4.59———
Total goalsOver 2.553.9%1.85———
Total goalsUnder 2.546.1%2.17———
Total goalsOver 3.531.6%3.16———
Total goalsUnder 3.568.4%1.46———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.1%1.72———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.9%2.39———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Premium markets

No premium selection on this fixture yet
  • Asian handicap
  • Correct score
  • Total goals

The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.

Hungary U18 v Italy U18: too close to call

Our model makes Hungary U18 39% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 26% and Italy U18 at 35%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Hungary U18 against 1.38 for Italy U18 — almost nothing to Hungary U18 on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Hungary U18 and Italy U18
Hungary U18 Italy U18
1Played3
0-0-1W-D-L0-1-2
0.00Pts / game0.33
1.00Goals for / game0.67
2.00Goals against / game1.33
100%Over 2.533%
100%BTTS33%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score67%
0-0-0Home record0-1-1
0-0-1Away record0-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hungary U18 · Italy U18

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hungary U18MetricItaly U18
1.75 (better)Goals scored1.40
1.50 (better)Goals conceded2.20
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

No previous meetings on record.