Huddersfield v Wigan

1st2–121st

11:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Huddersfield		Wigan
17	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	4
15	Fouls	8
4	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
402	Passes	440
49%	Possession %	51%
3.08	xG	0.54

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Huddersfield 55%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.87 – 1.09

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Huddersfield -0.75

1.58Bet365 · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.47+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Huddersfield -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.58 with Bet365 — Huddersfield must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 84%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.58 implies only 63%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Huddersfield 1.87, Wigan 1.09.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Huddersfield	55.2%	1.81	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-16.2
Match result	Draw	23.5%	4.25	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+5.4
Match result	Wigan	21.2%	4.71	9.50 Betfair	10.5%	+10.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.0%	1.25	1.21 BetVictor	82.6%	-2.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.0%	5.00	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.8%	1.76	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.2%	2.31	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.4%	2.91	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-6.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.6%	1.52	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.6%	1.77	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.4%	2.30	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-7.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Huddersfield favoured against Wigan

Our model makes Huddersfield 55% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 24% and Wigan at 21%. The goal projection is 1.87 for Huddersfield against 1.09 for Wigan — a substantial edge to Huddersfield on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 9%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Huddersfield and Wigan
Huddersfield		Wigan
14	Played	14
8-5-1	W-D-L	3-2-9
2.07	Pts / game	0.79
2.00	Goals for / game	0.79
0.86	Goals against / game	1.57
64%	Over 2.5	50%
71%	BTTS	36%
29%	Clean sheets	21%
7%	Failed to score	57%
4-3-0	Home record	3-1-3
4-2-1	Away record	0-1-6
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Huddersfield · Wigan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	10.0
6.3	Shots on target	3.0
7.0	Corners	4.1
1.86	Cards	2.86
13.9	Fouls	11.3
44	Possession %	50
2.23	xG	1.09
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.9	Shots	15.9
3.1	Shots on target	5.1
3.6	Corners	5.1
1.86	Cards	3.14
9.7	Fouls	15.1
56	Possession %	50
0.99	xG	2.17
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Huddersfield	Metric	Wigan
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.75
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
2.22 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.70
	Big chances
6.20 (better)	Shots on target	2.75
15.40 (better)	Total shots	11.25
	Touches in opp. box
7.40 (better)	Corners	5.25
48.6	Possession %	52.3 (better)
390	Passes	460 (better)
	Tackles
13.60	Fouls	11.50 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.75
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Huddersfield wins: 1
Draws: 1
Wigan wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Huddersfield v Wigan2–12026-10-24
Wigan v Huddersfield1–02026-02-28
Huddersfield v Wigan1–12025-12-13

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5