Huddersfield v Peterborough

1st4–122nd

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Huddersfield		Peterborough
16	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	2
14	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
359	Passes	443
44%	Possession %	56%
2.59	xG	1.18

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Huddersfield 51%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.91 – 1.29

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Huddersfield -0.75

1.68Bet365 · fair 1.53 · qualifies at 1.58+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Huddersfield -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.68 with Bet365 — Huddersfield must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 78%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.68 implies only 60%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Huddersfield 1.91, Peterborough 1.29.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Huddersfield	51.4%	1.95	1.54 Dafabet	64.9%	-13.5
Match result	Draw	23.3%	4.30	5.00 Dafabet	20.0%	+3.3
Match result	Peterborough	25.3%	3.95	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+7.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.5%	1.20	1.12 Bet365	89.3%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.5%	6.06	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	+2.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.2%	1.61	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-6.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.8%	2.64	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.9%	2.50	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-6.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.1%	1.67	1.83 Betfair	54.6%	+5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.4%	1.60	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.6%	2.66	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-1.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Huddersfield favoured against Peterborough

Our model makes Huddersfield 51% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 23% and Peterborough at 25%. The goal projection is 1.91 for Huddersfield against 1.29 for Peterborough — a substantial edge to Huddersfield on expected output. A combined 3.21 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 7%; 1-0 7%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Huddersfield and Peterborough
Huddersfield		Peterborough
14	Played	13
8-5-1	W-D-L	2-4-7
2.07	Pts / game	0.77
2.00	Goals for / game	0.85
0.86	Goals against / game	1.77
64%	Over 2.5	46%
71%	BTTS	54%
29%	Clean sheets	8%
7%	Failed to score	46%
4-3-0	Home record	1-2-3
4-2-1	Away record	1-2-4
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Huddersfield · Peterborough

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	15.3
6.3	Shots on target	4.3
7.0	Corners	6.7
1.86	Cards	1.50
13.9	Fouls	10.2
44	Possession %	52
2.23	xG	1.52
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.9	Shots	13.8
3.1	Shots on target	5.0
3.6	Corners	4.5
1.86	Cards	1.17
9.7	Fouls	12.3
56	Possession %	48
0.99	xG	1.63
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Huddersfield	Metric	Peterborough
2.20	Goals scored	2.50 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
2.22 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.48
	Big chances
6.20 (better)	Shots on target	5.25
15.40	Total shots	17.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.40 (better)	Corners	6.50
53.2 (better)	Possession %	51.5
390	Passes	493 (better)
	Tackles
13.60	Fouls	11.50 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Huddersfield wins: 3
Draws: 0
Peterborough wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Huddersfield v Peterborough4–12026-10-20
Peterborough v Huddersfield2–32026-01-31
Huddersfield v Peterborough3–22025-09-06

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5