Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden

18th3–014th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Holstein Kiel		Dynamo Dresden
15	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	10
11	Fouls	5
5	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	4
337	Passes	588
37%	Possession %	63%
1.47	xG	2.04

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Holstein Kiel 39%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.36

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Holstein Kiel	39.4%	2.54	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-2.3
Match result	Draw	26.3%	3.81	3.85 Dafabet	26.0%	+0.3
Match result	Dynamo Dresden	34.4%	2.91	2.95 Dafabet	33.9%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.0%	1.28	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.0%	4.54	5.20 Betfair	19.2%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.7%	1.86	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.3%	2.16	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.4%	3.18	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.6%	1.46	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.8%	1.73	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.2%	2.37	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+3.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden: too close to call

Our model makes Holstein Kiel 39% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Dynamo Dresden at 34%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Holstein Kiel against 1.36 for Dynamo Dresden — a slight edge to Holstein Kiel on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel		Dynamo Dresden
11	Played	11
1-5-5	W-D-L	3-2-6
0.73	Pts / game	1.00
1.00	Goals for / game	1.36
1.27	Goals against / game	1.82
45%	Over 2.5	73%
45%	BTTS	55%
18%	Clean sheets	27%
45%	Failed to score	18%
1-4-1	Home record	3-0-2
0-1-4	Away record	0-2-4
L2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Holstein Kiel · Dynamo Dresden

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	11.2
3.0	Shots on target	3.8
4.0	Corners	5.8
2.80	Cards	1.85
13.4	Fouls	8.2
55	Possession %	51
1.13	xG	1.60
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.6	Shots	17.0
4.0	Shots on target	4.8
6.4	Corners	4.8
2.60	Cards	2.45
10.2	Fouls	9.8
45	Possession %	49
1.52	xG	1.54
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Holstein Kiel	Metric	Dynamo Dresden
0.80	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.17 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.80
	Big chances
2.25	Shots on target	3.25 (better)
12.00 (better)	Total shots	11.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.50	Corners	7.25 (better)
53.8	Possession %	54.3 (better)
459	Passes	552 (better)
	Tackles
13.50	Fouls	11.25 (better)
1.25 (better)	Offsides	2.33
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.67	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Holstein Kiel wins: 2
Draws: 0
Dynamo Dresden wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden3–02026-10-25
Dynamo Dresden v Holstein Kiel2–12026-05-17
Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden2–12025-12-20

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
5	1. FC Magdeburg	10	5	2	3	+8	17	1. FC Magdeburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	10	4	3	3	-1	15	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	FC St. Pauli	10	2	6	2	0	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
9	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
10	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
11	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
12	VfL Bochum	10	3	2	5	-3	11	VfL Bochum won 1 of the last 5
13	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
14	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
15	Hannover 96	10	3	2	5	-6	11	Hannover 96 won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	10	3	2	5	-8	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5