Holstein Kiel v Arminia Bielefeld

18th1–26th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Holstein Kiel		Arminia Bielefeld
15	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	5
14	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	6
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	5
645	Passes	214
75%	Possession %	25%
1.09	xG	1.92

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Holstein Kiel 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.21

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Holstein Kiel	46.7%	2.14	2.50 Betano	40.0%	+6.7
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.90	3.60 Betano	27.8%	-2.2
Match result	Arminia Bielefeld	27.7%	3.61	2.80 Betano	35.7%	-8.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.1%	1.28	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.9%	4.57	4.25 Betano	23.5%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.9%	1.85	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	+1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.1%	2.17	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.6%	3.16	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.4%	1.46	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.9%	1.76	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.1%	2.32	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Holstein Kiel favoured against Arminia Bielefeld

Our model makes Holstein Kiel 47% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Arminia Bielefeld at 28%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Holstein Kiel against 1.21 for Arminia Bielefeld — a clear edge to Holstein Kiel on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel		Arminia Bielefeld
11	Played	11
1-5-5	W-D-L	5-2-4
0.73	Pts / game	1.55
1.00	Goals for / game	1.64
1.27	Goals against / game	1.45
45%	Over 2.5	82%
45%	BTTS	73%
18%	Clean sheets	18%
45%	Failed to score	9%
1-4-1	Home record	3-2-0
0-1-4	Away record	2-0-4
L2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Holstein Kiel · Arminia Bielefeld

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	9.8
3.0	Shots on target	3.2
4.0	Corners	4.2
2.80	Cards	3.17
13.4	Fouls	12.0
55	Possession %	39
1.13	xG	1.10
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.6	Shots	11.7
4.0	Shots on target	3.5
6.4	Corners	4.3
2.60	Cards	1.67
10.2	Fouls	10.5
45	Possession %	62
1.52	xG	1.32
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Holstein Kiel	Metric	Arminia Bielefeld
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
1.05 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.95
	Big chances
3.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.25
12.00 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.75 (better)	Corners	3.25
47.3 (better)	Possession %	43.5
442 (better)	Passes	335
	Tackles
15.25	Fouls	10.25 (better)
0.75 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
3.25	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Holstein Kiel wins: 0
Draws: 1
Arminia Bielefeld wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Holstein Kiel v Arminia Bielefeld1–22026-11-07
Arminia Bielefeld v Holstein Kiel2–22026-01-23
Holstein Kiel v Arminia Bielefeld0–22025-08-10

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5