HJK Helsinki v KuPS

2nd2–23rd

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
HJK Helsinki		KuPS
10	Shots	22
5	Shots on target	8
2	Corners	8
14	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
515	Passes	403
52%	Possession %	48%
1.32	xG	2.09

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: HJK Helsinki 49%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.20

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

HJK Helsinki -0.5

1.85Bet365 · fair 1.65 · qualifies at 1.70+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back HJK Helsinki -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Bet365 — HJK Helsinki must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 49% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 68%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.65. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: HJK Helsinki 1.71, KuPS 1.20.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	HJK Helsinki	48.7%	2.05	1.91 Betano	52.4%	-3.7
Match result	Draw	25.0%	4.00	3.95 Betano	25.3%	-0.3
Match result	KuPS	26.3%	3.80	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.2%	1.26	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.8%	4.81	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.5%	1.80	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.5%	2.25	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-2.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.2%	3.02	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.8%	1.50	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.7%	1.73	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.3%	2.37	2.20 William Hill	45.5%	-3.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

HJK Helsinki favoured against KuPS

Our model makes HJK Helsinki 49% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 25% and KuPS at 26%. The goal projection is 1.71 for HJK Helsinki against 1.20 for KuPS — a substantial edge to HJK Helsinki on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for HJK Helsinki and KuPS
HJK Helsinki		KuPS
32	Played	32
17-8-7	W-D-L	14-11-7
1.84	Pts / game	1.66
2.06	Goals for / game	1.44
1.22	Goals against / game	1.03
66%	Over 2.5	34%
47%	BTTS	53%
38%	Clean sheets	28%
19%	Failed to score	25%
9-4-3	Home record	7-6-3
8-4-4	Away record	7-5-4
D1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. HJK Helsinki · KuPS

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.0	Shots	14.9
6.9	Shots on target	5.3
5.4	Corners	7.3
1.14	Cards	1.86
9.9	Fouls	12.3
57	Possession %	57
3.32	xG	1.18
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	9.6
3.4	Shots on target	3.6
4.6	Corners	2.7
3.14	Cards	2.00
12.6	Fouls	13.4
43	Possession %	43
1.02	xG	1.23
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HJK Helsinki	Metric	KuPS
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
3.67 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.35
	Big chances
6.60 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
18.00 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	6.20 (better)
55.0 (better)	Possession %	47.8
532 (better)	Passes	455
	Tackles
8.60 (better)	Fouls	11.80
1.80	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

HJK Helsinki wins: 0
Draws: 3
KuPS wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

HJK Helsinki v KuPS2–22026-10-25
KuPS v HJK Helsinki0–02026-09-13
HJK Helsinki v KuPS0–42026-06-27
KuPS v HJK Helsinki1–12026-04-26
HJK Helsinki v KuPS0–22025-11-09
KuPS v HJK Helsinki3–12025-10-19

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2