HJK Helsinki v Gnistan

2nd4–05th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
HJK Helsinki		Gnistan
19	Shots	11
10	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	6
7	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1
0	Offsides	1
657	Passes	269
63%	Possession %	37%
3.89	xG	0.55

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: HJK Helsinki 52%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.04 – 1.37

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	HJK Helsinki	52.5%	1.91	1.49 Dafabet	67.1%	-14.6
Match result	Draw	22.3%	4.48	4.90 Dafabet	20.4%	+1.9
Match result	Gnistan	25.2%	3.98	6.50 William Hill	15.4%	+9.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.8%	1.17	1.14 Bet365	87.7%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.2%	7.05	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.1%	1.51	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.9%	2.95	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.2%	2.26	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.8%	1.79	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.2%	1.53	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	+6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.8%	2.88	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	-5.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

HJK Helsinki favoured against Gnistan

Our model makes HJK Helsinki 53% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Gnistan at 25%. The goal projection is 2.04 for HJK Helsinki against 1.37 for Gnistan — a substantial edge to HJK Helsinki on expected output. A combined 3.40 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 2-2 6%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for HJK Helsinki and Gnistan
HJK Helsinki		Gnistan
32	Played	32
17-8-7	W-D-L	12-10-10
1.84	Pts / game	1.44
2.06	Goals for / game	1.63
1.22	Goals against / game	1.47
66%	Over 2.5	47%
47%	BTTS	59%
38%	Clean sheets	19%
19%	Failed to score	25%
9-4-3	Home record	7-5-4
8-4-4	Away record	5-5-6
D1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. HJK Helsinki · Gnistan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.0	Shots	13.1
6.9	Shots on target	4.9
5.4	Corners	5.3
1.14	Cards	1.43
9.9	Fouls	13.6
57	Possession %	44
3.32	xG	1.21
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	16.1
3.4	Shots on target	6.3
4.6	Corners	7.4
3.14	Cards	1.43
12.6	Fouls	11.6
43	Possession %	56
1.02	xG	1.99
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HJK Helsinki	Metric	Gnistan
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
5.25 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
16.50 (better)	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	4.75 (better)
52.5 (better)	Possession %	42.0
500 (better)	Passes	307
	Tackles
9.75 (better)	Fouls	10.25
2.50	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

HJK Helsinki wins: 3
Draws: 2
Gnistan wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.14
Over 2.5: 86%
Both score: 71%

HJK Helsinki v Gnistan4–02026-10-17
Gnistan v HJK Helsinki1–12026-09-18
HJK Helsinki v Gnistan2–32026-08-23
Gnistan v HJK Helsinki0–32026-04-18
Gnistan v HJK Helsinki2–22025-11-03
HJK Helsinki v Gnistan2–32025-10-03
Gnistan v HJK Helsinki2–42025-07-28

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2