Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld

1st1–06th

11:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hertha BSC		Arminia Bielefeld
15	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	1
4	Corners	2
11	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
596	Passes	243
71%	Possession %	29%
1.98	xG	0.37

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Hertha BSC 58%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.22 – 1.32

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Hertha BSC	57.5%	1.74	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+3.5
Match result	Draw	20.9%	4.79	4.15 Betano	24.1%	-3.2
Match result	Arminia Bielefeld	21.6%	4.64	4.05 Betano	24.7%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.3%	1.15	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.7%	7.85	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-5.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.7%	1.46	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+4.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.3%	3.19	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-7.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.2%	2.12	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.8%	1.89	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-7.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.7%	1.52	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.3%	2.92	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-4.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hertha BSC favoured against Arminia Bielefeld

Our model makes Hertha BSC 58% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 21% and Arminia Bielefeld at 22%. The goal projection is 2.22 for Hertha BSC against 1.32 for Arminia Bielefeld — a commanding edge to Hertha BSC on expected output. A combined 3.54 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld
Hertha BSC		Arminia Bielefeld
11	Played	11
10-1-0	W-D-L	5-2-4
2.82	Pts / game	1.55
2.27	Goals for / game	1.64
0.82	Goals against / game	1.45
73%	Over 2.5	82%
64%	BTTS	73%
36%	Clean sheets	18%
9%	Failed to score	9%
5-0-0	Home record	3-2-0
5-1-0	Away record	2-0-4
W3	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hertha BSC · Arminia Bielefeld

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8	Shots	9.8
7.0	Shots on target	3.2
5.6	Corners	4.2
2.00	Cards	3.17
12.0	Fouls	12.0
54	Possession %	39
1.96	xG	1.10
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	11.7
3.6	Shots on target	3.5
4.2	Corners	4.3
1.60	Cards	1.67
12.6	Fouls	10.5
46	Possession %	62
0.84	xG	1.32
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hertha BSC	Metric	Arminia Bielefeld
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
2.17 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.08
	Big chances
8.67 (better)	Shots on target	2.75
22.33 (better)	Total shots	10.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	5.00
50.0 (better)	Possession %	45.3
445 (better)	Passes	404
	Tackles
10.33 (better)	Fouls	12.75
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hertha BSC wins: 1
Draws: 1
Arminia Bielefeld wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld1–02026-10-24
Arminia Bielefeld v Hertha BSC6–12026-05-17
Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld1–12025-12-19

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5