Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli

11th1–19th

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hannover 96		FC St. Pauli
13	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	6
3	Corners	3
11	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	2
417	Passes	558
43%	Possession %	57%
1.35	xG	1.00

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Hannover 96 57%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.79 – 0.93

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Hannover 96

2.12Betano · fair 2.00 · qualifies at 2.06+ · 1.35u

Why this price?

Back Hannover 96 to win at 2.12 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.00. The offered 2.12 implies only 47%, so the price is 6.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.35 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Hannover 96 1.79, FC St. Pauli 0.93.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Hannover 96	57.0%	1.75	2.40 William Hill	41.7%	+15.4
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.13	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-2.1
Match result	FC St. Pauli	18.8%	5.33	3.05 Dafabet	32.8%	-14.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.9%	1.32	1.18 Bet365	84.7%	-8.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.1%	4.15	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+5.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.9%	1.96	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-10.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.1%	2.04	2.60 Betano	38.5%	+10.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.8%	3.47	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-11.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.2%	1.41	1.67 Betano	59.9%	+11.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.8%	1.97	1.50 William Hill	66.7%	-15.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.2%	2.03	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	+12.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hannover 96 favoured against FC St. Pauli

Our model makes Hannover 96 57% to win this 2. Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and FC St. Pauli at 19%. The goal projection is 1.79 for Hannover 96 against 0.93 for FC St. Pauli — a substantial edge to Hannover 96 on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli
Hannover 96		FC St. Pauli
11	Played	11
3-3-5	W-D-L	2-6-3
1.09	Pts / game	1.09
1.09	Goals for / game	1.18
1.64	Goals against / game	1.45
64%	Over 2.5	45%
64%	BTTS	73%
9%	Clean sheets	27%
27%	Failed to score	9%
2-2-1	Home record	2-1-2
1-1-4	Away record	0-5-1
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hannover 96 · FC St. Pauli

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	16.4
5.3	Shots on target	4.8
5.2	Corners	5.2
2.17	Cards	2.60
12.7	Fouls	13.8
49	Possession %	53
1.54	xG	1.80
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.7	Shots	12.4
5.7	Shots on target	4.4
7.0	Corners	3.8
1.53	Cards	2.60
9.7	Fouls	12.4
51	Possession %	47
1.39	xG	1.45
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hannover 96	Metric	FC St. Pauli
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.73 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.04
	Big chances
5.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
14.25 (better)	Total shots	13.25
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.50 (better)
52.0 (better)	Possession %	46.5
492 (better)	Passes	433
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	10.50 (better)
4.75	Offsides	3.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hannover 96 wins: 0
Draws: 1
FC St. Pauli wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli1–12026-10-17

2. Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31	Hertha BSC won 4 of the last 5
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24	1. FC Nürnberg won 2 of the last 5
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21	1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20	1. FC Magdeburg won 3 of the last 5
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19	VfL Wolfsburg won 2 of the last 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of the last 5
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16	1. FC Heidenheim won 0 of the last 5
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14	VfL Bochum won 2 of the last 5
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12	FC St. Pauli won 1 of the last 5
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 2 of the last 5
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11	Energie Cottbus won 0 of the last 5
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11	Eintracht Braunschweig won 2 of the last 5
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11	VfL Osnabrück won 1 of the last 5
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11	Dynamo Dresden won 2 of the last 5
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Karlsruher SC won 2 of the last 5
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9	SV Darmstadt 98 won 1 of the last 5
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8	Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5