Hamburger SV v 
Eintracht Frankfurt
Match statistics
| Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 421 | Passes | 462 |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| 3.04 | xG | 1.74 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 69%
- Over 3.5
- 48%
- Both score
- 68%
- Model pick
- Eintracht Frankfurt 51%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 2.09
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Eintracht Frankfurt
Why this price?
Back Eintracht Frankfurt to win at 2.42 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 40%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.25. The offered 2.42 implies only 41%, so the price is 7.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.31 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Hamburger SV 1.49, Eintracht Frankfurt 2.09.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Hamburger SV | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.30 Dafabet | 30.3% | -3.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.90 Betano | 25.6% | -3.7 |
| Match result | Eintracht Frankfurt | 51.2% | 1.95 | 2.30 Betano | 43.5% | +7.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | 1.15 Betano | 87.0% | +0.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.3% | 8.10 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | -3.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | +4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 30.6% | 3.26 | 2.80 Betano | 35.7% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | +3.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -5.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 68.3% | 1.47 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 31.7% | 3.15 | 3.00 Betfair | 33.3% | -1.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Eintracht Frankfurt favoured against Hamburger SV
Our model makes Hamburger SV 27% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 22% and Eintracht Frankfurt at 51%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Hamburger SV against 2.09 for Eintracht Frankfurt — a substantial edge to Eintracht Frankfurt on expected output. A combined 3.58 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-1 6%
- 1-3 6%
This season
| Hamburger SV | Eintracht Frankfurt | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 4-0-5 | W-D-L | 3-3-3 |
| 1.33 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 1.11 | Goals for / game | 1.67 |
| 2.22 | Goals against / game | 2.22 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 78% |
| 44% | BTTS | 67% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 44% | Failed to score | 22% |
| 3-0-1 | Home record | 2-1-1 |
| 1-0-4 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| W1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hamburger SV · Eintracht Frankfurt
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.71 | Cards | 2.43 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 11.9 |
| 44 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.63 | xG | 1.64 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 17.3 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.05 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 56 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.80 | xG | 2.16 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Hamburger SV | Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.87 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.50 | Shots on target | 6.00 (better) |
| 12.75 | Total shots | 13.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.50 | Corners | 5.25 (better) |
| 34.5 | Possession % | 49.0 (better) |
| 309 | Passes | 418 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.25 | Fouls | 10.50 (better) |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.75 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Hamburger SV wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Eintracht Frankfurt wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.25
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 100%
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