Gnistan v AC Oulu

5th3–44th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gnistan		AC Oulu
14	Shots	20
8	Shots on target	7
5	Corners	9
15	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
420	Passes	348
55%	Possession %	45%
1.34	xG	1.85

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Gnistan 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.10

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Gnistan	49.7%	2.01	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+0.9
Match result	Draw	25.5%	3.92	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	-1.5
Match result	AC Oulu	24.7%	4.04	3.75 Dafabet	26.7%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.8%	1.30	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.2%	4.31	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.1%	1.92	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.9%	2.09	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-2.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.9%	3.34	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.1%	1.43	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.6%	1.83	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.4%	2.21	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-1.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gnistan favoured against AC Oulu

Our model makes Gnistan 50% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 26% and AC Oulu at 25%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Gnistan against 1.10 for AC Oulu — a substantial edge to Gnistan on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Gnistan and AC Oulu
Gnistan		AC Oulu
32	Played	32
12-10-10	W-D-L	14-6-12
1.44	Pts / game	1.50
1.63	Goals for / game	1.28
1.47	Goals against / game	1.25
47%	Over 2.5	41%
59%	BTTS	44%
19%	Clean sheets	38%
25%	Failed to score	28%
7-5-4	Home record	7-3-6
5-5-6	Away record	7-3-6
W1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gnistan · AC Oulu

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.1	Shots	11.1
4.9	Shots on target	4.0
5.3	Corners	4.1
1.43	Cards	2.29
13.6	Fouls	11.1
44	Possession %	35
1.21	xG	1.13
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.1	Shots	19.7
6.3	Shots on target	5.4
7.4	Corners	8.4
1.43	Cards	0.29
11.6	Fouls	11.1
56	Possession %	65
1.99	xG	2.26
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gnistan	Metric	AC Oulu
0.80	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.61	Expected goals (xG)	1.25 (better)
	Big chances
3.40	Shots on target	3.60 (better)
12.40 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.40 (better)	Corners	4.00
43.4	Possession %	45.6 (better)
332	Passes	404 (better)
	Tackles
11.60	Fouls	11.20 (better)
2.20 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gnistan wins: 3
Draws: 0
AC Oulu wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.60
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 80%

Gnistan v AC Oulu3–42026-10-24
AC Oulu v Gnistan1–22026-09-12
AC Oulu v Gnistan0–22026-07-18
Gnistan v AC Oulu1–52026-04-04
Gnistan v AC Oulu3–22025-08-25

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2