Finland v Belarus
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Finland 56%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.82 – 1.01
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Finland | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.67 SBO | 59.9% | -4.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.2% | 4.14 | 3.80 1xBet | 26.3% | -2.1 |
| Match result | Belarus | 20.1% | 4.97 | 5.92 1xBet | 16.9% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 4.57 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 2.35 Bet365 | 42.6% | +11.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 46.2% | 2.17 | 1.65 Marathonbet | 60.6% | -14.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 3.17 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | +12.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 46.0% | 2.17 | 1.62 William Hill | 61.7% | -15.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Finland favoured against Belarus
Our model makes Finland 56% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Belarus at 20%. The goal projection is 1.82 for Finland against 1.01 for Belarus — a substantial edge to Finland on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 10%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Finland | Belarus | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Played | 1 |
| 1-0-0 | W-D-L | 0-0-1 |
| 3.00 | Pts / game | 0.00 |
| 7.00 | Goals for / game | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 100% | Over 2.5 | 0% |
| 0% | BTTS | 0% |
| 100% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 100% |
| 0-0-0 | Home record | 0-0-0 |
| 1-0-0 | Away record | 0-0-1 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Finland · Belarus
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Finland | Metric | Belarus |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 4.67 (better) | Shots on target | 2.67 |
| 13.33 (better) | Total shots | 10.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 2.33 |
| 51.7 (better) | Possession % | 38.7 |
| 492 (better) | Passes | 414 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.67 (better) | Fouls | 17.33 |
| 1.67 | Offsides | 0.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.33 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.