Finland v Belarus

0–0

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Finland		Belarus
9	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	2
18	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
535	Passes	343
61%	Possession %	39%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Finland 56%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.82 – 1.01

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Finland	55.7%	1.79	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-8.0
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.14	4.15 Betano	24.1%	+0.1
Match result	Belarus	20.1%	4.97	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.1%	1.28	1.40 Betfair	71.4%	+6.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.9%	4.57	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	-8.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.8%	1.86	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+8.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.2%	2.17	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.5%	3.17	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+7.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.5%	1.46	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.0%	1.85	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+9.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.0%	2.17	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	-12.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Finland favoured against Belarus

Our model makes Finland 56% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Belarus at 20%. The goal projection is 1.82 for Finland against 1.01 for Belarus — a substantial edge to Finland on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Finland and Belarus
Finland		Belarus
4	Played	4
2-1-1	W-D-L	2-1-1
1.75	Pts / game	1.75
2.25	Goals for / game	1.25
0.50	Goals against / game	0.50
50%	Over 2.5	25%
25%	BTTS	0%
50%	Clean sheets	75%
50%	Failed to score	50%
1-1-0	Home record	2-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	0-1-1
L1	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Finland · Belarus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	9.5
4.5	Shots on target	3.0
6.0	Corners	2.8
1.50	Cards	3.25
13.0	Fouls	17.5
68	Possession %	43
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.5	Shots	13.3
2.5	Shots on target	2.8
2.3	Corners	5.5
3.25	Cards	2.75
13.8	Fouls	14.5
33	Possession %	57
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Finland	Metric	Belarus
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	2.67
13.33 (better)	Total shots	10.50
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	2.33
51.7 (better)	Possession %	38.7
492 (better)	Passes	414
	Tackles
9.67 (better)	Fouls	17.33
1.67	Offsides	0.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.33
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Finland wins: 0
Draws: 1
Belarus wins: 1
Goals / game: 0.50
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Belarus v Finland1–02026-10-06
Finland v Belarus0–02026-09-29