FF Jaro v Mariehamn

11th1–112th

11:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FF Jaro		Mariehamn
17	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	6
7	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
246	Passes	605
48%	Possession %	52%
1.30	xG	1.03

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: FF Jaro 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.36

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

FF Jaro -0.5

2.20Bet365 · fair 1.97 · qualifies at 2.03+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back FF Jaro -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365 — FF Jaro must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 57%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.97. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FF Jaro 1.53, Mariehamn 1.36.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FF Jaro	40.9%	2.45	2.30 Betano	43.5%	-2.6
Match result	Draw	25.9%	3.87	3.50 Dafabet	28.6%	-2.7
Match result	Mariehamn	33.2%	3.01	3.15 Dafabet	31.7%	+1.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.0%	1.27	1.27 Betano	78.7%	+0.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.0%	4.76	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.2%	1.81	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.8%	2.23	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.8%	3.05	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.2%	1.49	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.8%	1.70	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	+0.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.2%	2.43	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	-3.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FF Jaro favoured against Mariehamn

Our model makes FF Jaro 41% to win this Veikkausliiga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mariehamn at 33%. The goal projection is 1.53 for FF Jaro against 1.36 for Mariehamn — a slight edge to FF Jaro on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for FF Jaro and Mariehamn
FF Jaro		Mariehamn
29	Played	27
5-10-14	W-D-L	4-7-16
0.86	Pts / game	0.70
0.83	Goals for / game	0.81
1.72	Goals against / game	1.81
41%	Over 2.5	44%
48%	BTTS	44%
17%	Clean sheets	11%
41%	Failed to score	44%
4-6-4	Home record	3-5-5
1-4-10	Away record	1-2-11
W1	Streak	D2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FF Jaro · Mariehamn

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.8	Shots	17.0
4.0	Shots on target	2.0
5.8	Corners	5.5
1.50	Cards	1.50
10.0	Fouls	10.5
48	Possession %	54
1.42	xG	1.34
4 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	16.5
3.0	Shots on target	4.0
5.5	Corners	4.5
1.50	Cards	1.50
10.3	Fouls	8.5
52	Possession %	46
1.29	xG	1.63
4 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FF Jaro	Metric	Mariehamn
0.40	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.00
11.00 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.67
43.3 (better)	Possession %	42.7
301	Passes	346 (better)
	Tackles
14.67	Fouls	12.67 (better)
0.67 (better)	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FF Jaro wins: 1
Draws: 2
Mariehamn wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.80
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 60%

FF Jaro v Mariehamn1–12026-10-17
Mariehamn v FF Jaro2–02026-08-31
FF Jaro v Mariehamn3–02026-05-23
FF Jaro v Mariehamn2–32025-09-28
FF Jaro v Mariehamn1–12025-07-06

Veikkausliiga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter Turku	32	17	10	5	+16	61	Inter Turku won 3 of the last 5
2	HJK Helsinki	32	17	8	7	+27	59	HJK Helsinki won 3 of the last 5
3	KuPS	32	14	11	7	+13	53	KuPS won 1 of the last 5
4	AC Oulu	32	14	6	12	+1	48	AC Oulu won 3 of the last 5
5	Gnistan	32	12	10	10	+5	46	Gnistan won 1 of the last 5
6	VPS	32	11	7	14	-11	40	VPS won 0 of the last 5
7	Lahti	27	11	6	10	+9	39	Lahti won 2 of the last 5
8	Ilves	27	11	5	11	+6	38	Ilves won 4 of the last 5
9	Turku PS	27	8	8	11	-4	32	Turku PS won 0 of the last 5
10	SJK	27	6	9	12	-8	27	SJK won 2 of the last 5
11	FF Jaro	29	5	10	14	-26	25	FF Jaro won 2 of the last 5
12	Mariehamn	27	4	7	16	-27	19	Mariehamn won 1 of the last 5
13	PK-35	2	0	1	1	-1	1	PK-35 won 0 of the last 2