FC Zurich v FC Luzern

5th2–19th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Zurich		FC Luzern
13	Shots	28
6	Shots on target	6
2	Corners	9
7	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
357	Passes	471
43%	Possession %	57%
1.79	xG	2.85

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 73%
Over 3.5: 53%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: FC Luzern 47%
Likely score: 1-2 8%
Expected goals: 1.70 – 2.12

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Zurich	31.0%	3.22	2.72 Betano	36.8%	-5.7
Match result	Draw	21.6%	4.62	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	-4.0
Match result	FC Luzern	47.3%	2.11	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	+8.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.8%	1.11	1.13 Betano	88.5%	+1.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.2%	9.77	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	73.3%	1.36	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	26.7%	3.75	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	52.9%	1.89	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	47.1%	2.12	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	-5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	72.2%	1.38	1.36 William Hill	73.5%	-1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	27.8%	3.60	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-3.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Luzern favoured against FC Zurich

Our model makes FC Zurich 31% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 22% and FC Luzern at 47%. The goal projection is 1.70 for FC Zurich against 2.12 for FC Luzern — a clear edge to FC Luzern on expected output. A combined 3.81 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 73% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 8%; 1-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for FC Zurich and FC Luzern
FC Zurich		FC Luzern
13	Played	13
6-3-4	W-D-L	3-4-6
1.62	Pts / game	1.00
1.92	Goals for / game	1.62
2.00	Goals against / game	2.15
85%	Over 2.5	77%
85%	BTTS	77%
8%	Clean sheets	8%
15%	Failed to score	15%
4-0-2	Home record	3-1-3
2-3-2	Away record	0-3-3
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Zurich · FC Luzern

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	17.8
5.5	Shots on target	4.5
5.5	Corners	6.0
1.50	Cards	2.00
9.8	Fouls	14.3
52	Possession %	48
1.55	xG	1.67
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.5	Shots	16.3
5.0	Shots on target	5.8
7.8	Corners	4.5
2.00	Cards	2.00
14.0	Fouls	10.3
49	Possession %	52
1.72	xG	2.36
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Zurich	Metric	FC Luzern
2.40	Goals scored	2.40
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	3.20
1.28	Expected goals (xG)	2.31 (better)
	Big chances
4.75	Shots on target	6.25 (better)
13.75	Total shots	18.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.25 (better)	Corners	5.00
52.3 (better)	Possession %	46.8
392 (better)	Passes	384
	Tackles
10.75 (better)	Fouls	12.25
2.00	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Zurich wins: 2
Draws: 1
FC Luzern wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.20
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 80%

FC Zurich v FC Luzern2–12026-10-24
FC Luzern v FC Zurich1–02026-05-12
FC Zurich v FC Luzern1–42026-02-14
FC Zurich v FC Luzern3–22025-11-08
FC Luzern v FC Zurich1–12025-08-03

Swiss Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Lugano	13	11	1	1	+21	34	FC Lugano won 4 of the last 5
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	+16	28	BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	+11	26	FC Sion won 2 of the last 5
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+2	22	FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	-1	21	FC Zurich won 3 of the last 5
6	Servette FC	13	5	2	6	+1	17	Servette FC won 2 of the last 5
7	FC Basel 1893	13	4	3	6	-4	15	FC Basel 1893 won 0 of the last 5
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	-10	14	FC Thun won 2 of the last 5
9	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	-7	13	FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-13	11	Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	-5	10	FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	-11	7	Lausanne won 0 of the last 5