FC Thun v FC Lugano

8th2–31st

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Thun		FC Lugano
17	Shots	19
9	Shots on target	6
6	Corners	2
15	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	3
393	Passes	376
52%	Possession %	48%
1.90	xG	1.70

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: FC Lugano 65%
Likely score: 1-2 9%
Expected goals: 1.22 – 2.50

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.8%	1.39	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.2%	3.55	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.0%	1.96	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.0%	2.04	1.85 Betfair	54.1%	-5.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.0%	1.54	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.0%	2.86	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+2.7
Match result	FC Thun	16.5%	6.04	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-8.5
Match result	Draw	18.5%	5.41	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-4.6
Match result	FC Lugano	65.0%	1.54	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+12.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.9%	1.12	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-0.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.1%	9.04	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	-2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Lugano favoured against FC Thun

Our model makes FC Thun 17% to win this Swiss Super League fixture, with the draw at 18% and FC Lugano at 65%. The goal projection is 1.22 for FC Thun against 2.50 for FC Lugano — a commanding edge to FC Lugano on expected output. A combined 3.72 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Lugano is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 9%; 1-1 8%; 1-3 8%; 0-2 8%; 0-3 6%

This season

Season records for FC Thun and FC Lugano
FC Thun		FC Lugano
13	Played	13
4-2-7	W-D-L	11-1-1
1.08	Pts / game	2.62
2.08	Goals for / game	2.77
2.85	Goals against / game	1.15
85%	Over 2.5	92%
77%	BTTS	62%
8%	Clean sheets	31%
23%	Failed to score	8%
0-2-4	Home record	6-1-0
4-0-3	Away record	5-0-1
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Thun · FC Lugano

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.6	Shots	17.0
6.0	Shots on target	5.8
5.4	Corners	5.0
2.20	Cards	3.00
16.8	Fouls	13.2
46	Possession %	51
1.85	xG	1.63
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	15.8
5.2	Shots on target	5.8
4.8	Corners	5.4
1.40	Cards	2.60
12.8	Fouls	13.8
54	Possession %	49
1.63	xG	1.31
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Thun	Metric	FC Lugano
1.60	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.35	Expected goals (xG)	2.09 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	6.25 (better)
12.75	Total shots	17.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.25	Corners	5.25
39.5	Possession %	55.0 (better)
306	Passes	523 (better)
	Tackles
18.25	Fouls	10.25 (better)
0.67 (better)	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
2.25 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
1.00	Red cards	0.33 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Thun wins: 1
Draws: 0
FC Lugano wins: 4
Goals / game: 2.20
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 40%

FC Thun v FC Lugano2–32026-10-25
FC Thun v FC Lugano0–12026-04-25
FC Lugano v FC Thun1–02026-04-04
FC Thun v FC Lugano0–12025-11-22
FC Lugano v FC Thun1–22025-07-27

Swiss Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Lugano	13	11	1	1	+21	34	FC Lugano won 4 of the last 5
2	BSC Young Boys	13	8	4	1	+16	28	BSC Young Boys won 4 of the last 5
3	FC Sion	13	8	2	3	+11	26	FC Sion won 2 of the last 5
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+2	22	FC ST. Gallen won 4 of the last 5
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	-1	21	FC Zurich won 3 of the last 5
6	Servette FC	13	5	2	6	+1	17	Servette FC won 2 of the last 5
7	FC Basel 1893	13	4	3	6	-4	15	FC Basel 1893 won 0 of the last 5
8	FC Thun	13	4	2	7	-10	14	FC Thun won 2 of the last 5
9	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	-7	13	FC Luzern won 1 of the last 5
10	Grasshoppers	13	2	5	6	-13	11	Grasshoppers won 0 of the last 5
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	-5	10	FC Vaduz won 1 of the last 5
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	-11	7	Lausanne won 0 of the last 5